- Crypto markets have been stagnant, but analyst Miles Deutscher predicts a major shift in Q4 2024.
- Historical data suggests the best returns for crypto occur from October to April, signalling a potential boom period ahead.
- Deutscher views the macroeconomic environment as a long-term bullish factor for crypto, regardless of the US election outcome.
- A decrease in retail interest and significant repayments from FTX could catalyse a market turnaround.
It seems the crypto market has investors in a lull, as most assets have been trading sideways for quite some time now, causing many to lose interest. However, this could easily lead to investors being sidelined if they lose focus. At least that’s what Australian crypto analyst Miles Deutscher believes, saying:
The crypto market is about to catch A LOT of investors off guard. Don’t let that be you.
Miles DeutscherRelated: Last Dip Buying Opportunity? Analysts Predict Bitcoin Will Soar Beyond $90K Soon
Deutscher wrote in a series of posts on platform X that the fourth quarter of 2024 could “spark a MONUMENTAL market shift”.
Past Market Performance Points to Massive Upside
The analyst believes that, although often perceived as random, markets – and especially the crypto market – are “highly cyclical”, responding to certain months of the year. The upcoming quarter is historically a strong one for equities but also for crypto – the strongest time for Bitcoin by a long shot, following the worst period (Q3).
Not only that, but going by past cycles, crypto’s “boom period” is between October to April. This makes the months leading up to October, from May onwards the time to accumulate.
Deutscher points out that past returns between the months of May and September have been around 620%, while those between October and April have been a staggering 13,656,203%.
Macro Environment Bullish Long-term, No Matter Who Wins Election
Deutscher believes that the macro environment heavily influences the crypto market, with factors like the upcoming US federal election, inflation trends, and global liquidity playing significant roles.
He suggests that a Trump presidency could positively impact crypto due to his supportive stance, as seen at the BTC 2024 conference. However, despite a Kamala Harris win potentially limiting crypto’s upside potential, he doesn’t think it’s a “death blow”.
However, Kamala winning isn’t a death blow imo – it might just limit upside + create regulatory issues down the track.
Miles DeutscherAdditionally, Deutscher points out that cooling inflation and impending rate cuts by the Fed, especially if not recession-related, could be bullish for crypto.
Moreover, he notes that global liquidity, which is highly correlated with BTC more than with equities or gold, is increasing and expected to rise into 2025, potentially boosting crypto markets further.
Retail “Off-Side” Creates Potential For “Expansionary Phases”
In case you hadn’t noticed, interest in crypto has all but disappeared, at least among average retail traders, Deutscher believes.
Most market participants have been flushed out and are off-side. Look at any retail metric you want. Google Trends, Social engagement, YT views etc. The trend is clear. 90% of retail is gone.
Miles DeutscherAnother metric that shows reduced interest is the Coinbase app, which, after making it into the top 50 of most downloaded apps in the United States, dropped into the abyss.
Related: MicroStrategy Invests an Additional $1.11 Billion in Bitcoin
All this makes Deutscher bullish, as the potential to the upside increases significantly:
Add to this the fact that FTX is repaying US$16 billion (AU$23.8 bn) to creditors, with US$12 billion (AU$17.8 bn) in cash likely to re-enter the market – which is expected to offset the negative impact from past Mt. Gox/German selling – and the market is ready to turn things around.
And while Deutscher says crypto remains highly volatile and things can change very quickly, he believes it is “actually riskier NOT to be exposed to the market than it is to be exposed to it”.
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