Arthur Hayes Declares the End of Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle, Citing Monetary Forces Over Halving Hype

BitMEX co-founder, Arthur Hayes, has sounded a hopeful note for those whose Uptober hasn’t started quite as uppishly as they might’ve hoped.

In his latest blog post published Thursday, Hayes said he believes the four-year Bitcoin price cycle is over and we’re likely to see an upward trend continue for some time. If the four year cycle were to continue, we’d be seeing the crypto market top out right around now — a fairly depressing prospect for many recent crypto investors. 

Hayes argued that global liquidity, driven by monetary policy in China and the US, trumps Bitcoin halving events as a driver of crypto price action. He thinks we’re likely to see an extended period of looser monetary policy, particularly out of the US.

Hayes claimed that, in the past, traders and market analysts have misunderstood the underpinnings of the four-year Bitcoin cycle, believing it was driven directly by halvings.

As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run. They apply this rule without understanding why it worked in the past. And without this historical understanding, they miss why it will fail this time.

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder

According to Hayes, Bitcoin’s cycles are driven primarily by monetary policy, which has just happened to coincide with Bitcoin halvings. In all previous cycles — from the ‘Genesis cycle’ of 2009-20013 to the ICO Boom of 2013-2017 to the COVID cycle of 2017-2021 — Hayes argued that Bitcoin prices surged when monetary policy in the US and China increased the supply of money, and then promptly crashed when money supply was subsequently tightened.

He said growth in Bitcoin’s price this cycle has been largely driven by the draining of the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) to issue treasury bills under former President Biden, which unleashed around US$2.5 trillion (AU$3.8 trillion) of liquidity, and has been continued under the Trump administration.

Ordinarily, according to Hayes, we’d now be seeing monetary policy beginning to tighten, the crypto market top and begin to decline and the broader economy slowing down — unlike in previous cycles though, we’re now seeing the exact opposite. 

In September, the US Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points despite inflation remaining above its target band, with two more interest rate cuts widely expected before the end of the year. Hayes believes Donald Trump himself is exerting as much pressure as he can to ensure monetary policy continues to increase the supply of money:

In the US, newly elected President Trump wants to run the economy hot. He routinely speaks about America growing in order to reduce its debt load. He lambasts the Fed for a too-tight monetary supply. His desire is generating action.

Arthur Hayes, BitMEX co-founder

According to Hayes, Trump wants to see US house prices drop to unlock “trillions of dollars of trapped home equity” following rapid price rises since 2008, which would further add to circulating liquidity.

Hayes also believes Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent intends to deregulate banks in order to increase lending to “critical industries,” concluding that “the future as painted by the ruling political elite points to lower, not higher, interest rates and higher, not lower, growth in the money supply.”

On the Chinese side of things, Hayes says Chinese President Xi Jinping will be keen to stop a stubborn trend of deflation and usually when faced with these kinds of economic headwinds, “Chinese policymakers print money.” Hayes said he doesn’t think China will be a major driver of an increase in global liquidity, but he also doesn’t think it will hinder it either.

“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing,” Hayes said, adding that “they clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future.”

Related: Bitwise Predicts Record $36B Surge in U.S. Bitcoin ETF Inflows by Year-End 2025

Not Everyone Agrees Four-Year Cycle Is Over

While Hayes is confident, many still believe we’ll see a continuation of Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. Pav Hundal, lead analyst at Aussie crypto exchange, Swyftx, said last month he’d need to see more evidence before accepting the four-year cycle is now irrelevant.

“The four-year cycle thing’s always been a bit of a weird one — I’m still in that camp of ‘I’d like to see it before I have to believe it,” Hundal said, adding that “Q4 — yeah I’m still looking at that as a topping point.”

Related: JPMorgan Says Bitcoin Could Hit US$165K by Year-End

In August, blockchain analytics firm Glassnode noted that profit taking by long term Bitcoin holders was similar to levels seen at euphoric phases of previous Bitcoin cycles, suggesting the market may have been closer to a top than many believed.