- While Bitcoin gained 5% week-over-week, 10X Research expects a positive start to 2025 followed by a pullback before the January 15 CPI data release, with potential renewed momentum leading into Trump’s inauguration.
- Swissblock analysts highlight a disconnect between economic recession indicators and financial markets, suggesting investors remain sceptical of warnings due to previous false alarms like the 2020 scenario.
- Bitcoin sentiment has stayed measured through 2024 with only brief euphoric periods, indicating potential for sustainable growth above US$100K without the market reaching peak euphoria or experiencing dramatic altcoin surges.
Bitcoin gained 5% week-on-week but has struggled to break above US$100,000, hovering just below this key level.
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Analysts at 10X Research believe that BTC is due for a rebound, according to a recent note. However, they don’t expect a similar rally like in early 2024, after the US Spot exchange-traded funds (ETF) approvals by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
This is not the time for the same level of bullishness we experienced from late January to March 2024 or late September to mid-December. We anticipate a positive start to the year, followed by a slight pullback leading into the CPI data release on January 15.
10X ResearchThe analysts believe that favourable inflation data could lead to a rekindling of the bull run into Donald Trump’s inauguration, while the FOMC meeting is likely to dampen that rally somewhat.
Swissblock analysts note that many economic indicators are pointing to a looming recession as 2025 begins. However, investors remain sceptical, viewing this as a “boy who cried wolf” scenario after previous false alarms like the massive quantitative easing during the anticipated 2020 recession.
Let’s not forget that the economy and financial markets currently are uncorrelated; the economy may flash warnings while indices, equities, and risk assets keep climbing, ignoring these signals.
SwissblockDespite economic warnings, financial markets continue to rise, with the sentiment that “For now, Ride the Lightning,” even as we approach what may be the “blow-off top” phase of the market cycle, they wrote.
As this unfolds, we must ride the wave, gradually seeking an exit once the explosive move is over.
SwissblockThe analysts further note that Bitcoin sentiment has remained surprisingly measured throughout 2024, with only brief periods of euphoria during Q1’s initial rally and Q4’s “Trump Pump”, suggesting the market hasn’t yet reached its peak euphoric phase.
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While a more explosive phase with parabolic price action and altcoin surges may still emerge, current sentiment levels appear conducive to an ongoing bull run in the near term.
In the short term, however, sentiment looks favorable for a sustainable bull run, potentially driving prices above $100K—without losing composure in the process.
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