- Bitcoin’s recent move toward a new all-time high, followed by a significant retraction in altcoin prices, has resulted in BTC Dominance reaching a 12-month peak.
- According to a newsletter from Bitfinex, this reflects a broader market malaise regarding altcoins, with investors mostly interested in Bitcoin.
- Bitcoin’s volatility has been strangely subdued in the run-up to the US election, implying that investors are HODLing for the time being.
- Meanwhile, financial giants Bernstein have predicted Bitcoin could hit as high as US $200k by the end of 2025.
The US presidential election is within touching distance, and investors around the world are gearing up for what will be a wild ride. Regardless of whether Trump or Harris reigns supreme, the election result will have a lasting effect on the crypto market – and the Bitfinex Alpha newsletter predicts Bitcoin is set for lift-off.
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It has been a relatively subdued couple of months for altcoins, aside from the odd breakout. Memecoins like Dogecoin and Dogwifhat have soared of late, but L1 and L2 altcoins such as Ether, Solana, Chainlink and Cardano haven’t been as impressive.
This is reflected in Bitcoin dominance, which has grown by 4% over the past month to a 2024 high of 60.5%.
Bitfinex’s newsletter notes this trend and suggests that investors are favouring Bitcoin over altcoins, especially as the election approaches. This is likely because traders want exposure to crypto as a bull market potentially emerges in a post-election landscape – but the volatility of altcoins since March this year is warding them off riskier assets.
Volatility Subdued as Investors Wait and See
This very volatility is one of the Bitfinex Alpha newsletter’s key takeaways.
Unlike altcoins, which have been a rocky ship for the last six months, data uncovered in the report shows that Bitcoin investors have been pretty stable in the run-up to the US election.
In the options markets, front-end implied volatility for contracts with the earliest expiry is unusually subdued up to election day. This muted volatility suggests investors are holding back, waiting for the dust to settle.
BitfinexBasically, traders are sitting on the sidelines, waiting to see how the election unfolds before jumping back in. This will likely lead to a pronounced spike in volatility over the next few days, especially if the Democratic party emerges as likely victors.
US $200k by 2025, Bernstein Predicts
Meanwhile, asset managers Bernstein have come out in full support of Bitcoin, predicting a Donald Trump win to be favourable for the coin in the short-term. Meanwhile, the article argues that a Harris win might cause a short-term dip for BTC, but it is unlikely to last too long.
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Put it all together, and Bernstein is incredibly bullish on how the election will impact Bitcoin going forward.
The institution believes that a realistic price target for BTC is US $200k (AU $303k) by the end of 2025 – an increase of nearly 300% from today.
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