Crypto analyst Kevin, known online as Kev Capital TA, said he has started buying Dogecoin again after the memecoin fell back to what he described as a major long-term support zone near $0.095. In a video published April 20, Kevin argued the level matters because it aligns with the measured move target of Dogecoin’s weekly bear flag and with a price area that has repeatedly acted as both support and resistance across prior cycles.
Dogecoin Could Be Near A Major Turning Point
Kevin said Dogecoin’s corrective move from its December 2024 cycle high near $0.49 has now largely fulfilled the downside target he had been watching for months. “If you just take the measured move target of the bear flag pattern, you’re basically sitting at the exact same price of what the measured move target is,” he said, placing that target at about $0.095.
That level, in his view, is not just a technical target but a historically important zone. Kevin pointed back to August 2024, when Dogecoin bottomed near the same area before rallying sharply in the fourth quarter, and to earlier periods in 2022, 2023 and early 2024 when the band acted as resistance, support, or a breakout-retest level. “This is a major level, right? This is a major major zone,” he said. “You found support here back in January 2024 before we legged up to the 23 cents level. You found the support here again in the summertime of 2024 before we legged up to 49 cents.”
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Even so, Kevin stopped well short of calling a confirmed macro bottom in Dogecoin. His broader framework remains centered on Bitcoin, which he repeatedly described as the market’s primary signal. “Altcoin charts are not living in their own world,” he said. “Bitcoin is the captain. Bitcoin is the king. Bitcoin is the queen. Whatever way you want to put it, whatever way you want to slice and dice it, that’s the way the market goes.”
That point shaped the rest of his Dogecoin thesis. Kevin said he has started a position at current levels, but only as part of a gradual accumulation plan that depends heavily on how Bitcoin behaves in the weeks ahead. “I have in our private group started a position in Dogecoin down at these levels,” he said. “My plan is to continue to allocate into it if I get the opportunity to. If Bitcoin were to leg lower … then I would hope to get the opportunity to then slowly, very slowly allocate into Dogecoin all the way down into this $0.08, $0.07, $0.06, maybe $0.05.”
His near-term read is constructive, but only in a limited sense. He pointed to improving weekly money flow, buy signals, upside movement in weekly stochastic RSI, and a bullish turn in LMACD on lower time frames as evidence that the market is in a late-winter, early-spring countertrend rally. But he argued Dogecoin still faces a heavy technical ceiling before traders can talk about a real trend reversal.
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On the weekly chart, Kevin said Dogecoin needs to reclaim the 21-week EMA and 20-week SMA around the low-$0.11 area, while higher resistance bands sit around $0.136, $0.147 and $0.161 depending on the moving average used. On the monthly chart, he said the picture is even less convincing. Dogecoin, according to Kevin, closed below the 100 EMA on the monthly for the first time in its history, while monthly momentum, money flow and LMACD have yet to show the kind of reset he associates with the end of a bear market.
“Treat it as a bear market for now,” he said. “This countertrend rally is nice, but for now, it’s still just a countertrend rally on the crypto market until proven otherwise.”
That leaves Dogecoin in a familiar place: attractive enough for selective accumulation, but still dependent on Bitcoin to validate any broader reversal. Kevin said he expects the “true bottom” for the cycle to arrive sometime between July and October if the standard four-year pattern continues. Until then, his message was less about chasing Dogecoin itself than about watching the asset that still sets the tone for everything around it.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.09558.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
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