- Spot Ethereum ETFs in the US could drive ETH to new highs; analyst Adrian Zduńczyk disagrees it’s priced in.
- Zduńczyk cites a US$154K ETH price target by 2030, with significant yearly growth and a solid user base supporting this forecast.
- He advocates a 70% BTC and 30% ETH portfolio for optimal risk-adjusted returns.
The case of the Spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs) possibly coming to the United States is a potential catalyst for ETH to reach new all-time highs. Or is the launch – which is expected to see Ether ETFs trade as early as July – already priced in?
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Crypto analyst Adrian Zduńczyk, a Chartered Market Technician (CMT) with 651K followers on social platform X, doesn’t think so. Based on a VanEck analysis, @crypto_birb believes that ETH could be worth $154K (AU$233.5K) by 2030, with a base target of US$22K (AU$33.3K).
According to Zduńczyk and VanEck the optimal crypto portfolio is 70% in BTC and 30% in ETH – and they say adding 6% of crypto to the standard 60/40 portfolio will boost profits.
VanEck Believes Huge Price Target Driven by US$66 Billion in Free Cash Flows
So how did the American investment manager come to that lofty price prediction?
It’s simply a “projection of Ethereum generating $66 billion in free cash flows by 2030 and applying a 33x valuation multiple” says Zduńczyk.
The analyst explains that Ethereum benefits from a strong set of user metrics, with 20 million monthly active users generating US$3.4 billion (AU$5.2 billion) in yearly revenue.
71% of Network Revenue to Come from Finance By 2030
Annually, 0.4% of Ethereum’s total supply is burned, highlighting a deflationary trend in its economic model. The platform’s robust economic activity is further underscored by a settlement value of US$4tn (AU$6tn) and US$5.5tn (AU$8.3tn) in stablecoin transfers, reinforcing these growth figures, he added.
By 2030 it is expected that 71% of the network revenue will come from finance, based on a strong user base and transaction fees much lower than those of credit card processors and payment apps.
Other bullish forces for ETH are the increasing importance of layer-2 networks and the potential of AI integration.
Further, Zduńczyk believes Ethereum will become a Sharpe Ratio leader. The Sharpe Ratio assesses an investment’s performance against a risk-free asset, adjusting for risk; a higher ratio indicates better risk-adjusted returns.
The analyst calculates that a portfolio consisting of 71.4% Bitcoin (BTC) and 28.6% Ethereum (ETH) yields a Sharpe ratio of 1.43. This indicates that this combination of BTC and ETH provides a favourable balance between expected return and volatility when compared to other potential combinations of these two cryptocurrencies.
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Final words of warning though, Zduńczyk says that 2030 is well past his “timeframe of interest” and in general long-term predictions are obviously fraught with uncertainty. He believes there will be a possibly prolonged bear market in 2026, which is why he will be looking to exit the market in 2025.
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