- Zduńczyk expects Bitcoin to reach US$86,500 by April’s end, driven by positive market indicators.
- He noted increased risk and volatility with key indicators like BPRO and RSI highlighting potential challenges.
- Market sentiment shows extreme greed; historical gains suggest a bullish outlook with halving event influence.
Adrian Zduńczyk, CMT (Chartered Market Technician) also known as crypto_birb on X, has taken to his 650k followers on the platform to share his thoughts on the current market and the outlook for the rest of April. As a financial consultant, Zduńczyk’s expertise is backed by his CMT credential, a leading qualification for technical analysts often held by people employed by major firms like Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, Fidelity, and Bloomberg.
Learn more about how to analyse crypto before buying in our comprehensive guide.
Zduńczyk says he expects Bitcoin to reach US$86,500 (AU$131,512) by the end of April.
In his analysis, Zduńczyk highlights the current bull market’s drivers, including upward trends in the 200-week and 50-week averages, increased ETF demand, and the anticipation of the upcoming halving event.
He notes a strong 7-week correlation with the S&P 500 at 0.79 and a Net Unrealised Profit/Loss (NUPL) of 0.6, indicating most traders are currently in profit.
Bull Market: 200-week & 50-week trends rising. ETFs & halving (16 days left) boost demand.
Adrian ZduńczykBPRO and RSI Hint at Increased Risk and Volatility
Zduńczyk points out increased risk and volatility, with daily prices fluctuating between US$59k (AU$89.7k) and US$74k (AU$112.5k). Key indicators such as the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the 200-day Bullish Percentage Oscillator (BPRO) show significant upward trends, yet 50-day momentum is stalling, and RSI stands at 48, signalling growing volatility.
He remarks on bearish conditions and choppy trading evidenced by a notable US$250k (AU$380k) trade stopped for a loss and resistance levels around $71.7k (AU$109k) to $71.9k (AU$109.31k).
Unlike the Bullish Percent Index (BPI) that tracks the percentage of assets in bullish patterns within a given index, the Bullish Percentage Oscillator (BPRO) is a momentum indicator that measures the extent and speed of price changes over a specific period. It evaluates the rate at which prices are rising or falling, helping investors gauge the strength of a trend.
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the other hand is a technical analysis tool that measures the velocity and magnitude of recent price changes to identify overbought or oversold conditions in an asset’s price.
The RSI operates on a scale from 0 to 100 and can signal potential trend reversals or corrective price pullbacks, guiding buy and sell decisions. An RSI above 70 suggests an overbought state, while below 30 indicates oversold conditions.
Related: Aussie Analyst Warns Market Correction Could Worsen Under This Condition
Further Zduńczyk said that market sentiment is characterised by extreme greed as seen in the Fear & Greed Index, and miners are profitable at prices above US$56.2k (AU$85.43). The market is currently in a ‘belief’ phase, he added.
Seasonally, according to Zduńczyk, the month opened at $71k ($107.9k), with April historically averaging gains of +21.95%, targeting $86.5k (AU$131.5k).
Halving: ‘buy the rumor, sell the news’ heuristic expected; BTFD dip hunt setup.
Adrian Zduńczyk
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