- Jason Pizzino highlights the fallacy of hype and doom narratives, drawing parallels with past cycles.
- He cautions against being swayed by short-term market sentiments, advocating for a focus on fundamental analysis and historical data.
- Pizzino predicts a potential low in the near future, possibly in May or June, based on historical patterns.
- He underscores the need to continuously re-evaluate market conditions and adjust strategies accordingly.
Humans can be fickle creatures, even investors are not immune to the human condition. When the Spot Bitcoin ETFs arrived, the talk of the town was that BTC would surely reach $100k, heck, maybe even $1m before the year’s end. Now that we have seen a relatively normal correction, what do you get?
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A lot of talk about the markets crashing and the bull market being cancelled. But Aussie analyst Jason Pizzino is one of the few level-headed commentators who put a lot of the hype and bust narrative down to just that: narratives.
One of the best examples, he says, is the ETF-narrative – once these funds had been approved, many said Bitcoin won’t be dropping in price now because institutions won’t let it happen.
Humbug!
This is of course, nothing new:
It’s the same bull**** that we heard in the last cycle where they were saying, ‘well, the price will never go down because Michael Saylor’s average price was $30,000. They’d never let it go below that.’ It’s just nonsense every time.
Meanwhile those once purporting these predictions just disappear:
And now a lot of those people who were talking about that at the peaks, which I see in the comment section. Where are they?
Bitcoin Low Incoming, Potentially Soon
Now the narrative revolves around the end of the bear market, amid the recent correction:
Now we are down 24% from the top. These are the sort of things that I’m starting to hear. You know, it’s over. The top could be in. Maybe it’s a left translated cycle.
Basically, Jason wants to warn that in the heat of the moment we sometimes forget that many of the narratives repeat themselves, so it’s important to focus on fundamentals and not the doom-and-gloom narratives.
Drawing from previous data and technicals, Jason believes we are likely to see the low soon and will continue with a rally – although it may not be a new all-time high anytime soon.
I’m kind of liking the possibility of anywhere around May, June, quarter two, potentially for that low. But I don’t think from just looking at the previous history that we’re just going to shoot up to a new fresh high.
Then again, nothing is set in stone, which is why it’s important to re-evaluate your strategies from time to time.
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Things can change. Strength could come straight back into that market. That’s absolutely okay. I’m just looking at the data for now and I will change my analysis as more data comes through. We have to do that.
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