Market analyst Benjamin Cowen says Ethereum’s (ETH) ability to extend its recent gains depends on whether Bitcoin (BTC) can remain above a key technical level that defines broader market momentum.
In a new video update, Cowen says his outlook for ETH’s next rally is tied to BTC staying above its 50-week moving average, a long-term trend indicator watched by traders to gauge whether the market is in bullish or bearish territory.
Cowen says,
“I could see a scenario where Bitcoin stays above the 50-week moving average… it allows Ethereum to get one final rally to end the cycle. Hopefully that pans out.”
At time of publishing, Bitcoin has slipped below its 50-week simple moving average of approximately $103,000, with BTC trading at $98,653.
Cowen adds that if Bitcoin closes below the 50-week average for two consecutive weeks, it would mark a break from his base case and signal the end of Ethereum’s upward cycle.
“At that point, I would let it go and be like, look, had a good run, but it was always going to come to an end at some point.”
He notes that Ethereum’s recent move below its bull market support band – a range combining the 20-week simple and 21-week exponential moving averages – adds uncertainty to the current trend.
Despite the setback, Cowen says he remains open to the possibility of ETH making another push toward a new all-time high if broader market conditions hold.
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