- CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno identified US$75,000 and US$85,000 as critical resistance levels tied to the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, a metric tracking the average cost basis of short-term market participants.
- Hourly Bitcoin inflows into exchanges hit 6,100 BTC on March 16, with large deposits accounting for 63% of total inflows, the highest share since at least October 2025.
- Bitcoin has declined after seven of the last eight FOMC meetings, including a 7.3% drop following the January 2026 rate hold, as the Federal Reserve prepares to announce its March 18 decision.
Bitcoin’s (BTC) move toward US$75,000 (AU$106K) is facing pressure from both market structure and macro policy, with on-chain data pointing to resistance ahead and the Federal Reserve set to announce its latest rate decision on March 18.
CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, identified two key resistance levels at about US$75,000 (AU$106,500) and US$85,000 (AU$120,700). Both are based on the Traders’ On-chain Realized Price, which measures the average cost basis of coins moved by short-term active traders and has often acted as a ceiling in bear markets.
Bitcoin reached an intraday high of US$75,991 (AU$107,908) on March 17 before retreating, while CryptoQuant has continued to argue since late 2025 that the wider market remains in a bear cycle.
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The latest rebound has been driven largely by derivatives (according to the analysts). Short liquidations picked up after Bitcoin moved above US$70,000 (AU$99,400), while new long positions built quickly above US$73,000 (AU$103K).
Open interest rose 11.3% to US$84.1 billion (AU$119.4 billion), and funding rates, which turned negative on March 12, have moved back into positive territory as long traders returned.
CryptoQuant described the advance as a derivatives-led relief rally rather than the start of a broader bullish trend. The firm also pointed to signs of distribution, with 6,100 BTC sent to exchanges on March 16.
Large deposits made up 63% of those inflows, the highest share since at least Oct. 15, 2025, suggesting the risk of renewed selling pressure.
Fed Decision Looms
Attention is now turning to the Federal Open Market Committee, which concludes its meeting on March 18. Markets overwhelmingly expect rates to stay at 3.50% to 3.75%, but Bitcoin has fallen after seven of the past eight Fed decisions.
The meeting may carry added significance because it also includes updated economic projections and comes as oil prices remain elevated after Iran-related supply disruptions.
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