Next 150 Days Make-Or-Break For Crypto, Says Swyftx Analyst Hundal

SwyftX analyst, Pav Hundal, believes the next 150 days will be make or break for the crypto market as investors watch to see how Donald Trump’s newly imposed tariffs play out and whether the CLARITY Act can pass the US Congress before the mid-term elections in November.

Speaking on the latest episode of the Tapping Into Crypto podcast, Hundal noted that Trump’s new tariffs — which were introduced to replace other tariffs deemed illegal last week by the US Supreme Court — could ratchet up uncertainty, potentially hurting risk-off assets like crypto.

Why this all matters is markets are forward looking, they take what’s happening now, they price it in in anticipation of where it’s going in the future.

Pav Hundal, Swyftx analyst

“It’s a huge, huge deal for the globe because the US is the largest consumer base in the world,” he said. Hundal added that “in 150 days this whole thing could be rolled back, or there could be a new version, or there could be something else that happens…what if all of a sudden the US government has to pay back consumers?”

The reason 150 days is the key time frame here is that after that time has elapsed, the newly imposed tariffs will need to be approved by the US Congress in order to continue. It’s widely believed there’s virtually no chance they’ll be approved. 

In the meantime, Trump’s team is working to develop less temporary tariffs solutions with firmer legal footings. However, much uncertainty remains about what this might look like and if it’ll even be possible.

Hundal noted that this uncertainty, while potentially harmful for crypto, could also prove to be a positive catalyst, if it’s resolved in a way that benefits the market.

“It sets up this theme of within the next 150 days we’ll either have a good reason to get excited or maybe not be too excited,” he said.

If things aren’t interrupted too badly and everyone can get back to the rules of the game, which is global trade, then it’s good for crypto.

Pav Hundal, Swyftx analyst

Related: Trump Raises Global Tariff to 15% After Court Blocks Emergency Powers

CLARITY Act Odds Slip in Worrying Sign for Crypto Regulation Hopes

Another potential catalyst for a market upturn is the passage of the CLARITY Act, but things on that front aren’t looking as rosy as they were just a week or two ago. 

Tapping Into Crypto co-host, Ted Coaldrake, pointed out that the odds of the legislation passing this year on Polymarket had fallen to 57%, down from over 80% just last week. At the time of writing, the odds had risen again to 65%, up from a low of 39% earlier in the week.

Coaldrake explained the falling confidence that the CLARITY Act will pass this year is due to the increasingly partisan approaches taken to crypto by the major parties in the US, with the Republicans being strongly pro-crypto and the Democrats emerging as the anti-crypto party.

Crypto’s seen as the Republican thing, and the Democrats — because there’s been so much opposition, more so than ever — they might look at crypto as ‘that’s their thing, we’re going to operate against it’.

Ted Coaldrake, Tapping into Crypto podcast host

Coaldrake said it looks likely the Democrats will win the US mid-term elections and take back control of the House of Representatives, making the passage of the CLARITY Act much less likely.

“It’s not super positive as it once was,” Coaldrake lamented, adding “I think it’s just something we need to monitor…it’s not looking as good as it once was.”

Market Data Shows Current Bear Worst Since 2018

Figures cited by Coaldrake suggest the current bear market is the most brutal since 2018, outstripping even the dark days of the FTX-induced crypto winter of 2022.

Coaldrake pointed to the Fear and Greed Index hitting all-time lows of just 5 out of 100 in recent days and noted Bitcoin has had four consecutive red months — something it hasn’t done since 2018.

Asked if he believes this current cycle is mirroring what we saw in 2018, Hundal said much of what we saw in 2018 has already repeated this cycle and suggested we may now be getting close to a bottom.

“The market’s facing a similar level of selling sentiment as it was back then. Not to call that this is 100% the bottom, but it kind of should make everyone think this is kind of the point in the past where we did see some sort of relief or pressure reliever.”

Related: Prominent Analyst Questions Hesitation as Bitcoin Enters Classic Bottom Zone

Hundal backed up his belief that we may be bearing a bottom with some on-chain data that showed that currently only about 30% of long-term Bitcoin holders are in profit and for short-term holders, the figure is virtually 0.

“How many more weeks we can put up with that being the reality?” Hundal asked. “It’s the same way as if it was the inverse, it’s like ‘well everyone’s winning,’ that should be a warning sign.”