Bitcoin could climb to fresh all-time highs in 2026, even after lagging behind gold and technology stocks last year, according to BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes.
Key Takeaways:
- Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s path to new highs depends on renewed dollar liquidity rather than short-term price momentum.
- Tight liquidity in 2025 explains why Bitcoin lagged gold and tech.
- Hayes expects monetary expansion in 2026 to restore conditions that favor Bitcoin.
The outlook hinges not on short-term price action, but on a renewed expansion of dollar liquidity, which Hayes argues is ultimately the dominant driver of Bitcoin’s long-term value.
Arthur Hayes Says Bitcoin Needs Dollar Liquidity to Catch Gold and Nasdaq
In a post published Wednesday, Hayes questioned why Bitcoin struggled in 2025 while assets like gold and the Nasdaq continued to rise.
His answer was straightforward: liquidity. Without an expanding supply of dollars, Bitcoin lacks the fuel needed to outperform.
“Dollar liquidity must expand for that to happen,” Hayes said, adding that he expects those conditions to materialize in 2026.
Hayes outlined several factors that could trigger a sharp increase in liquidity. Among them is the potential expansion of the US Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, which would inject additional money into the financial system.
He also pointed to falling mortgage rates as liquidity loosens, along with a shift in commercial bank behavior that could see more lending directed toward U.S. government-backed strategic industries.
Military spending also plays a role in Hayes’ thesis. He argued that the United States will continue to project power globally, a strategy that requires large-scale weapons production financed through the banking system.
That spending, he said, contributes indirectly to monetary expansion, reinforcing conditions that tend to benefit scarce assets like Bitcoin.
Historically, looser monetary conditions have favored Bitcoin, as investors seek alternatives to fiat currencies that may lose purchasing power over time.
Hayes acknowledged that dollar liquidity contracted in 2025, coinciding with Bitcoin’s decline. Over the year, Bitcoin fell more than 14%, while gold surged over 44%.
Technology stocks, however, told a different story. The sector was the top performer in the S&P 500 last year, delivering returns well above the broader index.
Hayes attributed that divergence to government intervention, arguing that artificial intelligence has effectively been nationalized by both the United States and China.
As a result, capital continued flowing into AI-related companies regardless of traditional market signals.
Hayes: Bitcoin Is Monetary Technology, $100K Needs Fiat Debasement
Despite Bitcoin’s underperformance, Hayes cautioned against drawing bearish conclusions. He described Bitcoin as “monetary technology,” whose value is inseparable from the scale of fiat debasement.
While that alone ensures Bitcoin is worth more than zero, Hayes said reaching prices near $100,000 requires sustained monetary expansion.
Optimism among long-term bulls also remains strong. Venture capitalist Tim Draper reiterated this week that 2026 would be a breakout year, repeating his long-standing $250,000 Bitcoin price target.
Meanwhile, Abra CEO Bill Barhydt believes Bitcoin could benefit in 2026 as easing monetary policy injects fresh liquidity into global markets, reviving risk appetite after a prolonged period of tight financial conditions.
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