Bitcoin is likely to deliver steady gains over the next decade, but investors should not expect the kind of explosive year-on-year rallies seen in earlier cycles, according to Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan.
Key Takeaways:
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan expects steady, lower-volatility Bitcoin gains over the next decade rather than explosive rallies.
- Hougan remains bullish on 2026, citing ongoing institutional buying despite recent price weakness.
- Some analysts warn Bitcoin could still face deeper downside if the cycle has peaked.
Speaking on CNBC on Friday, Hougan described Bitcoin’s outlook as a prolonged upward trend marked by lower volatility and more measured returns.
“I think we’re in a 10-year grind upward of strong returns,” he said. “It’s not spectacular returns, [but] strong returns, lower volatility, some up and down.”
Bitwise CIO Sticks to Bullish 2026 Bitcoin Outlook
Hougan reaffirmed his view that 2026 will be a positive year for Bitcoin, maintaining a forecast he first shared in July, months before the asset surged to a new all-time high of $125,100 in October.
“I think next year will be up,” he said, despite growing debate over whether the current market cycle has already peaked.
That debate intensified after Bitcoin pulled back sharply from its October highs. The asset is trading around $87,800 at the time of publication, down about 3.8% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
ReserveOne chief investment officer Sebastian Beau said the drop has revived questions about whether Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle remains intact.
“All-time highs were 125,000… we are bordering on $87,000 today, down 30% relatively quickly,” Beau said, calling the move painful for investors.
Some market participants note that the timing of Bitcoin’s October peak closely resembles past cycle tops, raising the possibility that 2026 could be a down year.
Hougan acknowledged that retail behavior has played a role in the recent weakness, arguing that “fast-moving” retail investors rotated out late in the year in anticipation of a cycle-driven downturn.
Still, Hougan believes Bitcoin’s downside has been cushioned by what he described as “persistent, slow-moving institutional buying.”
Unlike previous cycles that saw drawdowns of 60% or more, Bitcoin’s current pullback has been comparatively shallow, a sign that long-term capital is providing support.
Not all analysts share Hougan’s optimism. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin could slide to $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026, highlighting ongoing risks tied to macro conditions and market structure.
Bitwise CIO Sticks to Bullish 2026 Bitcoin Outlook
Hougan also downplayed expectations that US politics will drive the next leg higher. While Bitcoin rallied to fresh highs earlier in 2025 following Donald Trump’s inauguration, Hougan said the administration is unlikely to unlock significant new upside.
Looking ahead to 2026, the industry remains divided. Fidelity’s director of global macro research, Jurrien Timmer, has suggested 2026 could be a pause year, with prices potentially sliding toward $65,000.
Others remain more optimistic. Strategy CEO Phong Le has argued that Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals held up throughout 2025 despite weaker prices, while Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said earlier this year that he expects 2026 to be an “up year” for the asset.
According to Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com, Bitcoin’s recent price action underscores the market’s sensitivity to monetary policy expectations rather than headline economic data.
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