Bitcoin may be on the verge of a prolonged bull market that could stretch into the next decade, according to Jan3 founder Samson Mow, who argues that the past year marked a stealth bear phase rather than the start of a broader downturn.
Key Takeaways:
- Samson Mow and PlanC argue that 2025 marked a stealth bear market, setting the stage for a Bitcoin bull run.
- Other analysts remain skeptical, warning that Bitcoin’s $125,100 peak could signal a new bear market.
- Bitcoin is nearing a rare down year that some see as a historical anomaly.
In a post on X on Friday, Mow said 2025 effectively served as Bitcoin’s bear market and that the conditions are now in place for a sustained advance lasting into 2035. “2025 was the bear market,” Mow wrote, adding that Bitcoin could be entering a “decade long bull run.”
His view was echoed by analyst PlanC, who said investors who endured the year had already weathered the worst of the cycle.
Analysts Warn Bitcoin’s $125K Peak May Signal New Bear Market in 2026
The outlook contrasts sharply with other forecasts that point to October’s all-time high of $125,100 as the peak of the current cycle.
Some analysts argue that 2026 could usher in a fresh bear market as macro conditions tighten and speculative demand fades.
Bitcoin is currently trading at around $87,200, down nearly 9% since the start of the year, according to CoinMarketCap.
The asset is on pace to close the year in the red, a rarity in Bitcoin’s trading history. PlanC noted that Bitcoin has never posted two consecutive annual declines, framing the current weakness as an anomaly rather than a trend reversal.
Price performance has fallen short of bullish projections made earlier in the year.
In October, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and BitMine chair Tom Lee suggested Bitcoin could still climb to $250,000 before year-end.
Instead, Bitcoin is down about 3% over the past 30 days, with sentiment deteriorating through December.
Market psychology reflects that pressure. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to a reading of 20 out of 100 on Dec. 26, extending a stretch of “extreme fear” that began earlier in the month.
Analysts Warn Bitcoin Could Fall to $60K–$65K in 2026
Looking ahead to 2026, the industry remains divided. Fidelity’s director of global macro research, Jurrien Timmer, has suggested 2026 could be a pause year, with prices potentially sliding toward $65,000.
Others remain more optimistic. Strategy CEO Phong Le has argued that Bitcoin’s underlying fundamentals held up throughout 2025 despite weaker prices, while Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said earlier this year that he expects 2026 to be an “up year” for the asset.
According to Linh Tran, market analyst at XS.com, Bitcoin’s recent price action underscores the market’s sensitivity to monetary policy expectations rather than headline economic data.
While US inflation has eased from last year’s highs, the latest consumer price index reading of 2.7% suggests that the disinflation process remains slow and uneven, forcing “the Fed to maintain a cautious stance, making it difficult to pivot quickly toward an aggressive easing cycle,” Tran said in a note shared with Cryptonews.com.
Last week, K33 also said Bitcoin’s prolonged sell-side pressure from long-term holders may be approaching its limits after years of steady distribution.
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