Dogecoin is trading in a technically sensitive area, with analyst Kevin (@Kev_Capital_TA) highlighting $0.138 as the key level the memecoin needs to reclaim to improve its higher-timeframe structure.
Dogecoin Faces A Familiar Test At $0.138
In a post via X on Dec. 23, Kevin said a reclaim of $0.138 on three-day and weekly closes would move DOGE back above the macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement and the 200-week simple moving average (SMA)—a confluence he described as “a major positive.”
“A reclaim of .138 for #Dogecoin on 3D-1W closes would put it back above the macro .382 and the 200W SMA,” he wrote, adding that DOGE is currently “mingle[ing] around in this ‘DCA’ zone.”
The emphasis on higher-timeframe closes is notable. Kevin has repeatedly framed $0.138 as a structural pivot rather than an intraday trigger, arguing that sustained closes below the level increase downside risk and weaken the broader setup.
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That view is consistent with an earlier post from Nov. 22, when DOGE was still trading above $0.138. At the time, Kevin called $0.138 “massive support” and warned that he did not want to see it lost on three-day or weekly closes.
Bitcoin Needs To Lead The Market
He also pointed to Bitcoin’s trajectory as the primary driver of whether DOGE can hold or reclaim the level.
“Obviously BTC’s performance will be the determiner to that outcome so focus there first along with USDT D,” he wrote.
In his most recent commentary, Kevin again tied Dogecoin’s prospects to Bitcoin reclaiming its own technical thresholds. He said a DOGE reclaim of $0.138 would “likely be in tandem with BTC reclaiming the $88,000–$91,000 zone,” which he characterized as necessary to re-establish upside momentum.
Separately, Kevin outlined why he remains cautious on Bitcoin in the near term. In a Bitcoin-focused post, he said BTC has been rejected from its key 4-hour moving averages nine times since Oct. 12 and “has not seen a day above them” since mid-September.
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While he said the three-day and weekly timeframes remain the primary focus, he argued that until Bitcoin clears those moving averages and reclaims the $88,000–$91,000 band on higher-timeframe closes, it is difficult to confirm a bottom, with momentum still favoring bears.
“While the 3D-1W TF’s are the main focus it is important to know that until BTC gets back above these key MA’s and the 88K-91K zone on 3D-1W you cannot confirm a bottom with confidence yet and the momentum is still in the bears favor. If BTC overcomes those levels then you can have a different convo,” he wrote.
For longer-term context, Kevin has previously referenced the broader $0.143–$0.127 region as an important decision area for DOGE. In a June 2025 post, he noted that since a weekly RSI breakout in 2022, Dogecoin has repeatedly bounced after revisiting the weekly RSI below 40, something he said has occurred five times. “A failure of this weekly RSI level along with a failure of the .143-.127 level would be the line in the sand between longer term bearish price action or continued bull,” he warned.
At press time, DOGE traded at $0.13.
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