Short-term Bitcoin holders just offloaded 29,400 BTC to exchanges at a loss, sparking fresh concerns about market pressure as the cryptocurrency hovers near critical support levels.
The sell-off occurs amid heightened distribution from long-term holders, who have sold approximately 815,000 BTC over the past month, the highest level since January 2024, while overall market conditions remain bearish, with Bitcoin testing its 365-day moving average at $102,000.
Despite the concerning headlines, analysts are urging investors to maintain perspective.
Glassnode data reveals that profit-taking by long-term holders has climbed from roughly 12,500 BTC daily in early July to 26,500 BTC daily currently, representing normal bull-market behavior rather than a coordinated exodus.
Long-Term Holder Distribution Follows Historical Patterns
Recent narratives claiming “OG Whales Dumping” or describing “Bitcoin’s Silent IPO” have sparked debate across the crypto market.
However, on-chain analysis from Glassnode shows that long-term holders have been realizing profits throughout this cycle exactly as they did in previous bull runs.
By late August, the scale of profits taken by seasoned investors after breaking the all-time high had climbed to levels fully consistent with prior cycle peaks.
Even when isolating whale wallets aged seven years or older, spending more than 1,000 BTC per hour, the data tells a consistent story.
These high-magnitude spends have occurred in every major bull phase; however, what stands out now is their frequency, which appears more regular and evenly spaced, indicating a persistent, staggered distribution rather than sudden, coordinated selling.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin holders realized net profits of $3.0 billion on November 7, a relatively high level comparable to the profits seen in October.
Net realized losses have been practically non-existent, indicating that holders have not capitulated — a necessary condition for forming a price bottom, according to CryptoQuant analysis.
Critical Support Levels Define Near-Term Outlook
Bitcoin currently hovers around its 365-day moving average of $102,000, a key technical and psychological support level that has acted as ultimate support throughout this bull cycle.
Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, emphasized that investors who entered Bitcoin six to twelve months ago have a cost basis near $94,000.
“Personally, I do not think the bear cycle is confirmed unless we lose that level,” Ju stated. “I would rather wait than jump to conclusions.“
Alex Adler also identified two critical correction levels: $87,000 and $74,000.
The $87,000 level is derived from a conservative Bitcoin valuation model, which explains 87% of price variation through on-chain activity, with a backtest score of 95 out of 100.
Failure to reclaim the 365-day moving average may accelerate a deeper correction, according to CryptoQuant’s latest research.
Notably, Hunter Horsley from Bitwise offered a contrasting perspective on market cycles.
“We talk about 4 year cycles — But the reality is that model is based on a bygone era of crypto,” Horsley noted.
“Since the launch of the Bitcoin ETFs and new administration, we’ve entered a new market structure: new players, new dynamics, new reasons people buy and sell.“
Leverage Unwind Signals Potential Market Reset
The derivatives market, representing between 70% and 80% of total trading volume, has entered a deleveraging phase since the October 10 liquidation event.
Open interest has decreased by 21% over the last three months, with leverage usage gradually cooling down as liquidations continue to flush out excess risk.
During previous corrections in September 2024 and April 2025, open interest decreased by approximately 24% and 29% respectively.
Current levels are approaching similar patterns that, in bullish market phases, often precede trend reversals by helping to clean up the market and allowing it to rebuild on healthier foundations.
Despite the bearish technical picture, spot demand has shown signs of recovery after entering contraction on October 8.
As speculated across key opinion leaders, three factors contributed to the shift in sentiment:
- Price lost momentum after the October 10 liquidation event.
- Spot demand temporarily contracted.
- Stablecoin liquidity growth slowed significantly.
However, some market observers note that prediction markets, DeFi innovations, and institutional adoption continue to advance behind the scenes, potentially setting stronger fundamentals for 2026, regardless of near-term price action.
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