- October proved disappointing for Bitcoin traders as the cryptocurrency fell 12% from its early-month all-time high marking only the third time Bitcoin closed October in the red.
- Analysts attribute Bitcoin’s weakness to short-term resistance clusters and subdued institutional buying, with potential further drops.
- There is disagreement among analysts about Bitcoin’s future trajectory, with some predicting further declines of 65–70% due to investors misunderstanding the asset’s utility.
- Meanwhile, A successful trader known as the ‘Hyperunit whale’ has deployed US$55 million in long positions across Bitcoin and Ethereum, betting on a market recovery.
Uptober hasn’t been the success many traders were hoping for. Yes, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high on 7 October at US$126,198 (AU$193,264), but it’s been on a downtrend since.
At the time of writing, the largest crypto is trading at US$104,318 (AU$160,136) — down 12% on the monthly chart and roughly 17% from the high.
It was also only the third time that Bitcoin closed October in the red, as data from Coinglass shows. On average, the month has seen a gain of 19.92%, while 2025 recorded a loss of 3.69%.
Bitfinex analysts said that Bitcoin “remains weighed down by a short-term resistance cluster”, as long-term holders sell and institutional buying stays subdued.
With this as a backdrop, the analysts believe that a “sustained break” below the US$106k–107k (AU$162.2k-163.8k) range could send BTC back under US$100k (AU$153.1k), but a “decisive reclaim above US$116k” could “mark the first sign of structural recovery heading into November,” the analysts wrote.
And while some analysts believe the classic Bitcoin four-year cycle is over, others disagree — saying BTC could fall another 65% or even 70%. Vineet Budki, CEO of venture firm Sigma Capital, told Cointelegraph that this could happen because many investors don’t fully understand the asset they hold:
Bitcoin will not lose its utility if it comes down to $70,000. The problem is that people don’t know its utility, and when people buy assets that they don’t know and understand, they sell them first — that is where the selling pressure comes from.
Vineet Budki, Sigma CapitalRelated: Hong Kong Opens Global Crypto Liquidity Access for Licensed Exchanges
Whale Bets Big
But while analysts warn of further downside, some traders clearly see opportunity where others see risk — and one of them has been making all the right calls lately.
Interestingly, according to Arkham, the crypto trader known as the ‘Hyperunit whale’ — who earned US$200 million (AU$306 million) by predicting last month’s US–China tariff-driven market crash — is now taking US$55 million (AU$84 million) in long positions on Bitcoin (US$37 million / AU$56.6 million) and Ethereum (US$18 million / AU$27.5 million) via Hyperliquid.
After three consecutive winning trades, analysts at Arkham are watching closely to see whether the whale’s bullish bet marks a fourth successful move.
Related: Australia’s Crypto Sector Welcomes New Rules, but Pushes for Clearer Guidance
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