- Gold’s 57% surge in 2025, driven by central bank purchases, highlights why Bitcoin’s price remains range-bound despite heavy ETF and corporate accumulation.
- Bitcoin’s price-sensitive holders have sold into rallies, muting gains, but once this pool diminishes, institutional demand could drive a major breakout.
- Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan suggests Bitcoin could experience a “Gold 2025 moment,” where continued ETF and corporate inflows push it decisively higher.
In his latest CIO memo, Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan suggests Bitcoin may be poised for a major upward move, following the pattern seen in gold’s remarkable 2025 rally. Gold has risen by 57% this year, equivalent to approximately AU$6,425 per ounce, reaching levels not seen in decades.
Bitcoin, however, has traded in a narrow range around US$108,000–$112,000 (AU$165,700–$171,200), even as US ETFs and corporate buyers have accumulated the cryptocurrency at record rates.
The performance gap between gold and Bitcoin is largely due to central bank purchases. Since 2022, central banks have been the dominant buyers of gold, increasing their annual acquisitions from 467 metric tonnes to 1,080 metric tonnes, significantly surpassing demand from gold ETPs. Bitcoin has yet to experience comparable central bank involvement, with institutional purchases coming primarily from ETFs and corporate treasuries rather than government reserves.
Related: Bitwise Predicts Record $36B Surge in U.S. Bitcoin ETF Inflows by Year-End 2025
How Investor Behaviour Shapes Market Moves
The lag in Bitcoin’s price is partly explained by the behaviour of price-sensitive holders. Despite the 2.3x increase in Bitcoin’s value since ETF and corporate accumulation began in early 2024, many short-term investors have taken profits, preventing prices from reaching anticipated highs such as US$200,000 (AU$306,560).
Gold’s history offers a useful precedent. Aggressive central bank buying in 2022 initially prompted sales from short-term investors, muting price gains. Only when these sellers were exhausted did gold accelerate to its current rally, suggesting that a similar pattern may be unfolding in Bitcoin markets.
If this scenario plays out, continued ETF and corporate purchases could push Bitcoin decisively higher once the remaining pool of sellers diminishes, creating a structural breakout reminiscent of gold’s surge. Hougan labels this potential scenario as Bitcoin’s “Gold 2025 moment”.
Investors may need to exercise patience, as historical trends indicate that market dynamics, rather than immediate price action, often drive sustained gains. The current consolidation could therefore presage a significant upward move.
Related: Kalshi Eyes $12 Billion Valuation as Investor Frenzy Sweeps Prediction Markets
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