New Bitcoin (BTC) price forecasts suggest that the leading cryptocurrency could cross $140,000 before the end of October. Based on historical data and advanced empirical modeling, a crypto analyst has confirmed that the probability of Bitcoin finishing the month above this key level appears increasingly likely.
Bitcoin Price Set For Major October Rally
According to a price prediction shared by crypto analyst and economist Timothy Peterson on X social media, Bitcoin’s trajectory in October appears promising. His AI-based bootstrapped simulation chart also suggests that half of the month’s gains may have already been realised.
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The empirical model, which draws on data from October 2015 to 2024, reveals a 50% probability that BTC could end the month above $140,000, representing a roughly 15% surge from current levels of around $121,000. Additionally, the model indicates a 43% probability that the Bitcoin price will finish below $136,000 within the same time frame.
Peterson’s chart displays observed daily prices leading into October 2025 and a projected range extending into early November. The model’s mean prediction, represented by the dashed blue line, suggests a gradual climb from the $120,000 range toward the $140,000 mark. The 68% confidence interval remains comfortably positioned above $130,000 for much of the forecast period.
The model also includes a 95% confidence interval, shown by the wider orange band, which highlights the full range of likely outcomes. It suggests that Bitcoin has only a slight chance, about 5%, of finishing October below $110,000 and above $170,000.
Interestingly, Peterson noted in an earlier post that October has historically been one of Bitcoin’s strongest months. His analysis highlights that specific days within the month, including the 9th, 20th, and 28th, have been bullish 71% of the time, while the 29th has seen gains 78% of the time since 2015. This historical tendency of October surges lends additional weight to the analyst’s bullish Bitcoin price forecast, suggesting that recurring patterns could help propel the cryptocurrency to new all-time highs soon.
Long-Term BTC Setup Supports Steady Growth Toward $200,000
In another report, Peterson presented a chart illustrating Bitcoin’s long-term price structure since 2022. While he clarified that he is not a proponent of traditional technical analysis, he emphasized his belief in repeating market cycle patterns. The chart depicts Bitcoin’s price movement within two parallel red trend lines, showing a consistent upward trajectory since the market bottom.
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Within this framework, several green upward segments indicate recurring phases of rapid price appreciation. According to this cyclical model, Bitcoin remains firmly within an established growth channel, projecting a potential rise toward $200,000 within the next 170 days. Peterson assigned this bullish scenario a “better than 50/50 chance,” suggesting that current market structure and historical recovery patterns support the case of continued Bitcoin price appreciation well into 2026.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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