- Analysts project that Bitcoin could reach US$165,000 (AU$249,082) by year-end, citing undervaluation relative to gold.
- The forecast is tied to the “debasement trade,” with retail-led ETF inflows into both Bitcoin and gold accelerating since late 2024.
- A previous US$126,000 (AU$190,953) target was lifted after gold’s rally, with some analysts now predicting Bitcoin as high as US$200,000 (AU$302,973).
JPMorgan has raised its price outlook for Bitcoin, forecasting the cryptocurrency could reach US$165,000 (AU$249,082) by the close of 2025 due to its undervaluation relative to gold.
The analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, noted that Bitcoin’s volatility compared to gold has dropped to a ratio below 2.0, meaning the asset consumes about 1.85 times more risk capital than gold. On this basis, they estimate Bitcoin would need to increase its market value by around 42% from its current US$2.3 trillion (AU$3.48 trillion) level in order to reach parity with private gold holdings, which are valued at approximately US$6 trillion (AU$9.09 trillion).
According to the report, Bitcoin’s valuation relative to gold has shifted considerably in recent months. At the end of 2024, it was assessed as being US$36,000 (AU$54,558) above the model’s fair value, while today it sits about US$46,000 (AU$69,713) below that level. The analysts concluded that this suggests substantial room for price growth.
Related: Deutsche Bank Says Bitcoin’s Path Mirrors Gold’s Rise as Volatility Declines: Report
Rising Demand for Alternative Assets
The upward revision also reflects developments in what JPMorgan described as the “debasement trade,” a pattern where investors turn to alternative stores of value such as gold and Bitcoin amid concerns about inflation, rising government debt, and weakening confidence in fiat currencies.
Flows into ETFs tracking both assets have accelerated since late 2024, particularly from retail investors. Bitcoin ETFs saw heavy demand earlier this year, though inflows slowed from August, while gold ETFs gained momentum during the same period, narrowing the gap between the two markets. Institutional investors have also participated but mainly through futures contracts on the CME rather than ETFs..
Earlier in August, JPMorgan’s year-end target for Bitcoin stood at US$126,000 (AU$190,953), but rising gold prices prompted an upward revision to US$165,000 (AU$249,082). Other forecasts from market participants have been even more bullish, with some projecting levels as high as US$200,000 (AU$302,973) before the year concludes.
Related: Telegram’s Pavel Durov Says Bitcoin, Not Telegram, Built His Fortune
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