- Prediction market traders on Polymarket are betting that Bitcoin will fall below US$100K before the end of 2025, with a 62% probability priced into the market.
- The betting contrasts with predictions that forecast a rally to as high as US$200K and it follows a recent large whale transaction that saw 24 BTC sold for ETH.
- Separately, traders are also betting on whether El Salvador’s Bitcoin holdings will exceed US$1B this year, with odds rising after a cryptic post from President Nayib Bukele.
Polymarket traders remain split on Bitcoin’s trajectory for the rest of 2025. While some analysts still point to a possible move toward US$200K (AU$305K) before 2026, most bettors are positioning for a break under US$100K (AU$152K).
Contracts on whether Bitcoin will finish 2025 below US$100K (AU$152,000) priced the outcome at 62%, down from 72% on Monday, at least.
Read more: Japan’s Metaplanet Upgraded to Mid-Cap, Adds 103 BTC to Reach Nearly 19,000 Holdings
As of Thursday, Bitcoin traded at US$112K (AU$170K). It has not been under US$100 (AU$152K) since June.
Whales Add Pressure
It’s worth noting that a recent whale transaction added a lot of pressure to the price, when it exchanged over 24 BTC for ETH.
Talking about prediction markets, El Salvador’s Bitcoin stash is now the subject of prediction markets, with traders betting on whether the country’s holdings will reach US$1B (AU$1.52 B) before year-end.
President Nayib Bukele shared Kalshi’s market post on the matter. The odds of hitting the milestone before November briefly jumped from 20% to 38% after he tweeted: “I could do the funniest thing right now.”
Rival platform Polymarket responded within hours, launching its own market with odds of 43 % that El Salvador’s Bitcoin value tops US$1B (AU$1.52B) by December.
The speculation comes against a backdrop of conflicting statements from El Salvador’s officials, who have told the IMF that Bitcoin purchases had stopped following a US$1.4B (AU$2.13B) loan deal in 2024.
Despite that, Bukele and the government’s Bitcoin Office have continued to announce new acquisitions.
Related: Trump Media Partners With Crypto.com, Launches US$1B CRO Strategy Vehicle
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