Bitcoin (BTC) Fee Market Faces Decline Amidst Onchain Activity Slowdown

Bitcoin’s onchain activity and fee market have entered a period of stagnation, according to a recent analysis by galaxy.com. This development comes amidst a backdrop of declining non-monetary activity and a significant drop in transaction fees, raising concerns about the long-term sustainability of miner revenue.

Fee Market Dynamics

Since late 2024, Bitcoin’s onchain usage has declined, leading to a rise in “free blocks,” where the average fee is one satoshi or less per virtual byte. This trend, while beneficial for users seeking low-cost transactions, puts pressure on miners who are already grappling with reduced block rewards following the 2024 halving.

The median daily fee has decreased by over 80% since April 2024, with approximately 15% of daily blocks now being “free blocks.” This reduction in fee pressure highlights a significant shift in the fee market, which is crucial for supporting miner revenue as block rewards continue to diminish.

Impact of OP_RETURN Transactions

OP_RETURN transactions, which allow embedding of arbitrary data in Bitcoin transactions, surged during the peak adoption of Runes in mid-2024, accounting for 40-60% of daily transactions. However, this share has since fallen to around 20% by August 2025. Despite this decline, OP_RETURN remains a tool for developers and institutions to anchor data onchain, sparking debate over its impact on network sustainability.

The upcoming Bitcoin Core v30 release, which proposes larger and multiple OP_RETURN outputs per transaction, has faced criticism over potential spam and blockspace consumption concerns. However, developers emphasize that the decision to relay or mine larger OP_RETURN outputs rests with individual node operators and miners.

Onchain and Offchain Activity

Bitcoin’s mempool, the waiting area for pending transactions, has seen an increase in not-full blocks, with nearly 50% being non-full in recent months. This suggests a lack of transaction competition and raises questions about the future of miner incentives, especially as more BTC is held in custodial solutions like ETFs and alternative Layer 1s such as Solana gain traction for trading and speculative activities.

Furthermore, over 1.5 million BTC are still held in legacy P2PK addresses, which are vulnerable to potential quantum computer attacks due to exposed public keys. Meanwhile, P2WPKH now holds the largest share of unspent BTC, reflecting shifts in address format adoption and network security considerations.

Conclusion

The current state of Bitcoin’s fee market and onchain activity presents both challenges and opportunities. While low fees benefit users in the short term, the long-term implications for network security and miner revenue remain uncertain. As Bitcoin’s role as a settlement layer evolves, the network must address these dynamics to maintain its core value proposition of a decentralized, censorship-resistant monetary system.

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