- Bitcoin continues consolidating between US$100k-$110k with the all-time high acting as firm resistance whilst support holds near $98k-$99k.
- Whale behaviour has shifted toward distribution with aggregate open interest falling 5% and mid-sized holders offloading roughly 14,000 BTC since late June.
- Retail participants are stepping in as short-term holders increased cumulative holdings by approximately 382,000 BTC in early July, offsetting long-term holder declines.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs continue seeing net inflows with only one day of outflows in the past month, whilst Bitcoin trades at US$108,767.
While Bitcoin has been trading in a range for a while now, investors and traders are wondering where the market is headed next.
In the latest edition of Bitfinex Alpha, analysts highlight Bitcoin’s persistent consolidation between US$100k (AU$153k) and $110k (AU$168k), noting that while profit-taking has eased, a clear directional catalyst remains elusive.
They point to the January high of US$109,590 (AU$176,655) as firm resistance and said that support has held steadily at the Short-Term Holder Realised Price (STH-RP) near US$98,220–US$99,474 (approximately AU$150,240 to AU$152,147), reflecting a market in delicate equilibrium where both bulls and bears await fresh impetus.
The analysts further suggest that Bitcoin’s inability to break above the upper range boundary has led to waning momentum at the highs. Futures traders have been closing positions around the same levels first tested in early July, indicating hesitancy to push prices significantly higher without “clearer macro signals”.
Simultaneously, whale behaviour has shifted toward distribution: aggregate open interest fell by over 5% (approximately US$1.8 billion or AU$2.75 billion) on July 4, and mid-sized holders (1,000–10,000 BTC) have offloaded roughly 14,000 BTC since June 30, suggesting caution among experienced market participants, the analysts wrote.
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Retail Steps In, But Is It Enough?
The report continues that against this backdrop, retail participants are stepping in:
In early July, short-term holders STH) increased their cumulative holdings by about 382,000 BTC, roughly mirroring the decline in long-term holder LTH) positions.
BitfinexThis “redistribution from crypto natives to newer entrants and institutions” may support near-term stability but raises questions about how these cohorts will respond during heightened volatility.
Meanwhile buyers of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are continuing their allocation into BTC. According to Santiment there has only been one day over the past month when the funds had net outflows.
Bitcoin trades at US$108,767 (AU$166,361) at the time of writing, up just over 1.5% in the past seven days. The all-time high still stands at US$111,970 (AU$171,249), set on 23 May, 2025.
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