Analysts Say New Bitcoin All-Time High Hinges on Fresh Demand Despite Easing Macro Tensions

Markets have recovered somewhat from the Iran-Israel conflict – dubbed the 12-Day-War – with the ceasefire still in place. Bitcoin has climbed back up to US$107,515 (AU$164,062), a 2.75 per cent gain over the past seven days.

Most other cryptocurrencies are struggling to keep up with Bitcoin’s pace and are still slightly in the red on the daily and weekly charts. Meanwhile, the Fear and Greed Index remains in Greed territory, indicating that investors are ignoring tensions in the Middle East for now.

All-Time High Soon?

The question then is if and when BTC can make a new all-time high, which would also likely push up altcoins.

Glassnode analysts stated that with fading momentum, markets are in a “holding pattern”. They added that for new highs, activity and demand need to return first:

While structure remains supportive, a breakout to new highs will likely require a clear pickup in demand, activity, and conviction.

Glassnode

Institutional Interest in Bitcoin Growing

Traders have taken profits off the table as retail demand is low and overall demand seems mainly driven by institutional interest. Recently, there has been almost daily news of companies entering the ‘Strategy play’, copying Michael Saylor’s approach of adding Bitcoin to their treasuries.

As reported, an Australian ASX-listed AI biotech company has also just added two whole Bitcoins to its holdings.

Related: ASIC Taps Financial Heavyweights to Probe ASX After $250M Blockchain Fiasco

The US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen no net outflows since 6 June, with the most recent trading day adding US$63 million (AU$96 million) – though data from the largest US spot BTC ETF, BlackRock’s IBIT, is still outstanding.

IBIT has accounted for much of the net inflows among these ETFs, adding over US$1 billion (AU$1.5 billion) since the start of the week.

All US funds combined now hold 5.9 per cent of all Bitcoin supply, which is 1.23 million BTC.

Market Relief on Easing Tension, Potential US Rate Cut

From a macro perspective, Paul Stanley at Granite Bay Wealth Management told Bloomberg that the easing geopolitical tensions are fueling market sentiment:

The market is betting on continued progress on trade, and a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East is giving investors confidence.

Paul Stanley, Granite Bay Wealth Management

On the other hand, the US Fed has signalled it may need more time to assess whether Trump’s tariff war causes more inflation. Some Fed chiefs have stated they don’t see those effects playing out as feared, indicating US rate cuts could come as soon as the next meeting – while Fed Bank of Boston President Susan Collins says there will be at least one cut in 2025.

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