- Bitcoin reached an all-time high of US$111,970 on 23 May 2025 but has since retreated to US$105,546, representing a 10 per cent monthly gain despite the pullback.
- The current retracement stems from macroeconomic concerns over Trump’s tariff policies, particularly after a US Court ruling deemed many tariffs illegal, causing Treasury yields to break above 5 per cent.
- Derivatives markets show signs of overheating with options open interest hitting an all-time high of US$49.4 billion, indicating elevated institutional activity and increased hedging speculation.
- Whale activity has intensified with large holders accounting for nearly half of exchange flows and over US$1.2 billion exiting Bitcoin ETFs since 29 May, suggesting profit-taking behaviour.
After hitting a new all-time high (ATH) of US$111,970 (AU$173,136) on May 23, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) has been eyeing higher highs but has failed to gain traction. At the time of writing, the largest crypto is trading at US$105,546 (AU$163,174), a monthly increase of 10 per cent.
The new ATH also represents a 50 per cent gain since BTC’s April lows, so a correction is not unexpected.
Analysts from Bitfinex wrote in a recent note that the “current pullback reflects a change in tempo, following nearly 50 days of uninterrupted upside marked by minimal retracements.”
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Trump Tariffs Cause Global Headaches
They further noted that the retracement isn’t just a technical one but rather due to macroeconomic worries around Trump’s tariff chaos. Just days ago, a US court ruled that much of Trump’s tariffs are illegal which had sent markets into a frenzy.
The announcement saw a breakout in 30-year Treasury yields above 5 per cent, and a wave of risk-off sentiment.
BitfinexThe analysts also noted that the derivatives market is starting to show signs of “overheating” as open interest has soared:
Options open interest has climbed to an All-Time High of $49.4 billion—highlighting elevated institutional activity and increased hedging/speculation following the recent Bitcoin ATH.
BitfinexThis could mean markets anticipate increasing volatility and “expectations of further macro headwinds and structural profit-taking.”
Whale Watching Reveals Market Trends
Further adding to the uncertainty is whale activity – the actions of large buyers – which has been increasing. Whales now account for almost half of exchange flows, as data from CryptoQuant shows.
While whale activity on all exchanges is up, they seem to prefer Binance, with that particular exchange now accounting for most inflows.
Whales moving large sums to exchanges is usually a sign that they anticipate selling at a local top, taking profits off the table.
US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) activity supports this assumption, as the funds had three days of net outflows after a record streak of net inflows.
Since May 29, over US$1.2 billion (AU$1.85 billion) has exited the funds, which now hold 1.2 million BTC or 5.77 per cent of the 21 million ever available.
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