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After months of bullish momentum that pushed the Bitcoin price to an all-time high of over $109,000 earlier this year, analysts are now debating whether that surge marked the official market top. Strengthening this argument, a confluence of technical indicators suggests the market cycle may have already peaked—most notably, the behavior of the Market Value to Real Value (MVRV) Z-Score reinforces this view.
MVRV Z-Score Shows Bitcoin Price Has Topped
A new technical analysis by crypto analyst Tony Severino, which combines MVRV Z-Score and monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI), is flashing warning signs that Bitcoin‘s market top may already be in.
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Looking at the logarithmic price chart, Bitcoin’s MVRV Z-Score has broken below a long-standing uptrend support line. This pattern is significant, as the Z-Score has always respected the uptrend support lines during bull markets, with similar breaks only emerging after Bitcoin reaches an official market top.
Notably, this isn’t the first time Bitcoin has displayed such a trend behavior. Similar support line breaks occurred before BTC’s market peaks during the 2017 and 2021 bull cycles. The bearish argument that Bitcoin may have already reached a price peak is further strengthened by the visual correlation between the Z-Score and Bitcoin’s monthly RSI, which is shown by a black line on the chart.
In past cycles, Bitcoin’s RSI fell below 70 twice, indicating fading momentum and weakening price action. Historically, such moves below the 70 level occur shortly after price tops, not before.
Even more compelling, the RSI-based Moving Average (MA), highlighted by the orange line on the chart, is now curling downwards. This subtle but strong signal has only appeared in past cycles after the market has already topped, serving as a confirmation rather than a prediction.
Taken together, these technical indicators and historical trends strongly suggest that Bitcoin’s $109,000 peak may have marked the top of this market cycle. In line with previous post-top bull market behavior, Bitcoin could now be on the verge of entering a prolonged bear market. This bearish outlook is reinforced by recent steep price corrections, reduced investor confidence, and a clear shift in market sentiment toward caution and uncertainty.
Bulls Attempt To Reverse Bitcoin Bearish Outlook
In another of his most recent analyses of Bitcoin, Severino revealed that bulls appear to be pushing for a price recovery. The analyst acknowledged that his previously dominant bearish narrative of Bitcoin may soon see a significant shift if bulls can sustain momentum into April’s monthly close.
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According to the presented chart, Bitcoin is now testing a key area of interest while simultaneously showing early bullish signs of reversing the bearish crossover on the monthly long-term Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). Adding to the intrigue, the possible formation of a Morning Star candlestick pattern reinforces the possibility of a bullish reversal for Bitcoin.
Notably, similar chart setups occurred in 2022 and mid-2023, both of which marked major turning points for Bitcoin’s long-term outlook. If the cryptocurrency manages to close April with a complete Morning Star pattern, it could force a reevaluation of bearish expectations.
Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
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