- Analysts from 10X Research predict several months of sideways movement for Bitcoin, based on past market performance.
- They note weakness in Bitcoin’s chart pattern, describing it as a flawed “High and Tight Flag” formation that indicates market indecision rather than a clear bullish continuation.
- US spot Bitcoin ETFs appear reluctant to “buy the dip”, with data showing significantly slowed accumulation.
It’s a question nagging on many investors’ minds: is this the end of the cycle for Bitcoin and Co or is it just a dip that should be bought before we go ever higher?
Analysts from 10X Research believe that we may first see several months of sideways choppiness.
Drawing comparison to 2024, they argue that March has “historically been a turning point for asset prices”, which caused an eight-month consolidation until Trump won the election and sent prices to new highs.
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Bitfinex analysts told Cointelegraph that corrections like the one we are seeing are normal within a bull cycle and that despite some bearish fundamentals “past trends suggest that this may be a shakeout rather than the start of a prolonged bear market”.
Where Are All the Dip-Buyers?
According to the head of research at 10X Research, Markus Thielen, the current Bitcoin chart shows weakness and doesn’t suggest anyone is rushing to buy the dip.
Bitcoin’s chart pattern, which resembles a “High and Tight Flag” – typically a bullish continuation pattern – actually shows signs of weakness because it comprises “two flags instead of a single, precise formation”, Thielen explained.
The analyst believes this weakens the setup and indicates “market indecision rather than a straightforward bullish consolidation”.
He also said the US spot Bitcoin ETFs are not lining up to buy the dip, either.
[…] Most ETF flows came from arbitrage-driven hedge funds. Given the persistently low funding rates, there’s little incentive or willingness to deploy additional capital despite the recent price correction.
Markus Thielen, 10X ResearchBlackRock Records Largest ETF Outflows
Data from Farside shows that the US spot Bitcoin ETFs have significantly slowed down their accumulation.
And there seems to be a bit of a pattern emerging: when BlackRock’s IBIT has net inflows, most other funds have net outflows, and vice versa.
Although the week ended in the black for most of the US funds, IBIT saw US$96.2 million (AU$152.03 million) in net outflows, while the other funds managed just US$37 million (AU$58.45 million) in net inflows.
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The day before IBIT saw US$45.7 million in net inflows while the rest saw US$180.9 million (AU$285.84 million) in net outflows.
All US Bitcoin ETFs now hold still 1.118 million BTC, or 5.325% of total supply, as flows have slowed down significantly.
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