- A BTC Strategic Reserve and a digital asset stockpile for seized altcoins were recently introduced through Executive Orders in the United States.
- Despite regulatory clarity, the crypto market hasn’t performed as expected, with non-Bitcoin assets struggling and overall market sentiment souring due to tariffs and inflation.
- The podcast Tapping into Crypto explores the possibility that the traditional four-year market cycle has been disrupted by institutional and governmental involvement.
‘Expect the unexpected’.
With Donald Trump looming as crypto’s saviour, while simultaneously parading as the broader economy’s enemy, this phrase has never felt truer.
It’s been (nearly) two months since the US President was inaugurated, and the crypto sphere has been rocked by an unprecedented level of change. For better, and worse.
The introduction of a US Strategic Reserve was made official last week, with Trump signing an Executive Order creating one. At the same time, he also ordered the introduction of a digital asset stockpile, which would comprise seized altcoins like ETH, ADA, XRP and SOL.
Despite regulatory changes bringing clarity to the industry, the crypto market as a whole has not moved as many had hoped upon Trump’s election victory.
So, Aussie analysts Ted Coaldrake and Pav Hundal dive into the action-packed events of the last week, and where to from here.
Related: Bitcoin Reserve: Texas to Cap BTC Amount, Utah Advances Bill, Senator Lummis Reboots Efforts
Altcoin Season…Where is it?
The Tapping into Crypto podcast hosts kick things off by interrogating the current market cycle. In particular, they attempt to answer the question on everyone’s lips: Where on Earth is our alt season?
It’s been over 300 days since the halving, and usually after 180 days in the last two cycles we’ve seen an altcoin season start to take off.
Pav Hundal, Lead Analyst at SwyftxThe lack of growth among non-Bitcoin assets has damaged market sentiment, adding to an already sour and cautious mindset stemming from Trump tariffs and sticky inflation in the US.
Historically, the crypto market has been as reliable as the Ol’ Faithful geyser in Yellowstone National Park…at least if you zoom out. On a day-to-day basis, referring to digital asset volatility as reliable seems ridiculous – but over a long timeframe, the overall market trends have been relatively predictable.
This is well-known across the industry as the ‘four-year cycle’.
But, according to the latest Tapping into Crypto episode, it’s possible this cycle has been broken once and for all following institutional and governmental entry into the industry.
…Do you think that [the lack of altcoin season] is because we potentially broke this four-year cycle and with…ETFs and governments buying up crypto…things have changed?
Ted Coaldrake, Content and SEO Lead at SwyftxThe hosts follow this up by espousing the age-old adage – past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Despite cryptocurrency’s seemingly cycle-based movement, a fast-paced market is always liable to a cataclysmic shift in direction.
If you’re new to crypto and you think you’re going to do well based on previous market cycles….the smart money’s going to win out… and it’s not necessarily going to be people buying crypto for the first time expecting to make big money.
Ted Coaldrake, Content and SEO Lead at SwyftxNow There’s Blood in the Water, Is it Time to Buy?
However, the warning comes with a caveat – crypto breaking its four-year cycle might actually be a positive move for prices in the long run. The podcast duo looks at how the current macroeconomic situation, with recession fears starting to bubble under the surface, is one of the primary reasons for crypto’s underperformance.
We’ve got all this good news coming out of the US but then you know…crypto prices are falling pretty badly and stock prices as well…concerns around recession are back…[and] there’s talking that the US Federal Reserve…won’t actually drop rates anytime in 2025.
Ted Coaldrake, Content and SEO Lead at SwyftxConsidering that there’s a slate of ‘good news’ coming out from the US regarding crypto regulation, it’s likely the broader socioeconomic pressures are putting a lid on crypto’s valuation. This could mean, that when things hopefully stabilise, the market is set up to continue its bull run – whenever that may be.
But does this mean now is a good time to buy? Analyst Pav Hundal suggests that while sentiment is extremely poor, it requires investors to rethink their philosophies to overcome the tough conditions.
I like moments like this…because it’s a complete mismatch of…what people’s expectations are. You have people that are upset and just angry…because they’re expecting to get rich next week because they unfortunately probably came in a period where things were going quite well…
Pav Hundal, Lead Analyst at SwyftxHe continues by emphasising the importance of time in the market, especially given crypto’s volatile nature.
I think that element of…time in the market right now is very clear cut. Someone who’s been in [the market] for a while now is still sitting in a pretty good position…People often have that regret later down the track where it’s like “I should have bought but…sentiment was so low that I wasn’t even thinking about buying, I was just thinking about how can I get out”…so it requires a little bit of a mindset shift.
Pav Hundal, Lead Analyst at SwyftxSo while the market may have topped for the time being, and altcoin season isn’t within our grasp – the slew of positive regulatory news coming from the US and other nations suggests things may not be as bad as they seem.
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