- VanEck’s Matthew Sigel predicts BTC could hit $180K by Q4 2025, citing halving cycles and historical trends, with a 1,000% increase from trough to peak as a reasonable case.
- Sigel suggests that if Bitcoin captures 50% of gold’s speculative market, its price could reach $450K, making it a dominant global reserve asset.
- Sigel also believes Jack Dorsey is somehow Bitcoin’s creator, Satoshi Nakamoto.
Bitcoin (BTC) is getting ready to skyrocket with a surge of 87% from current levels, at least according to Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck.
Sigel discussed Bitcoin’s price outlook in an interview on the David Lin report, where he states that Bitcoin could climb approximately 87% from current levels over the near term, assuming BTC follows patterns observed in prior four-year halving cycles.
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Sigel also suggests that each successive cycle has yielded smaller percentage gains but still believes a 1,000% increase from trough to peak remains a “reasonable case.” He cites a potential target of around US$180K (AU$281K) by the cycle’s peak, which he estimates might occur in the fourth quarter of this year.
“So, our bear case is that each cycle for Bitcoin has produced smaller and smaller returns. The previous smallest-ever cycle was 2,000% from the trough to the peak. If we assume a 1,000% price return, that would be roughly US$180,000 for this cycle.”
Sigel compares Bitcoin to gold in the medium term, stating that if BTC captures the speculative share of gold’s market —set at around 50%— the price could reach US$450K (AU$703K). In his view, this outcome depends on Bitcoin being broadly adopted as a global reserve asset and store of value.
“We benchmark this asset to gold and specifically the 50% of the gold market that’s used for speculative purposes rather than jewelry and industrial purposes. (…) if you assume that Bitcoin can surpass that kind of 50% of gold market cap level, that would be a $450,000 Bitcoin price target.”
Who Is Satoshi Nakamoto
That’s a good question, so put on your tinfoil hats because the conspiracy theories surrounding Satoshi Nakamoto’s identity are once again reignited.
That said, Sigel also recently shared his strong conviction that Jack Dorsey, the former Twitter CEO and noted Bitcoin advocate, is the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin.
“In the spirit of full disclosure, intellectual honesty, posterity’s judgment, and rigorous debate, I would like to share my strong belief: I have become personally convinced that Jack Dorsey – CEO of Square and founder of X – is Bitcoin’s founder Satoshi Nakamoto. This is my opinion, not that of VanEck.”
His claims draw from the work of Sean Murray, the chief editor at deCashed, who outlined several points linking Dorsey to the crypto’s inception.
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