On the Radar – What to Watch This Week in Crypto

The market is at an early phase of turning around – that’s my take. 

Sentiment towards crypto has taken a beating. After the memecoin-mania that had swept the world, it’s no surprise people are upset that their favourite meme looks lifeless on the chart. 

No judgment, I had a few go to zero. 

But while we’ve been hanging our heads low, there are broader trends in the economy that are worth knowing about. 

Global Stock Index Rallying

Unlike crypto and the S&P500, the Shanghai (CSI300) and London (FTSE100) indexes have continued to rally into fresh year-to-date highs. This comes despite the tussles and concerns over Trump’s aggressive trade tariff war. 

These are positive signs. 

The world’s eyes and ears are fixated on US policy and conditions. Which is fair, they are the world’s leading economy by GDP. But global general conditions are improving. China’s tech sector is showing strength, particularly after Deepseek made global headlines. The UK has seen four consecutive months of M2 money supply growth, showing liquidity conditions are improving. 

US Policy Mixed Messages

Fed Chair Jerome Powell mentioned earlier this week that the current state of monetary policy does not require easing conditions, as the economy remains strong and the 2% target for inflation is key. 

However, he has now referenced twice this week that unexpected moves in the labour market or a significant cooling of inflation could change the committee’s mind. Below are key dates to watch:

• 13/02/25 – PPI Inflation – 11:30 pm AEST
• 28/02/25 – PCE Inflation – 11:30 pm AEST

US Dollar Consolidating

Weakness in the US currency has also been observed. The US dollar index has failed to continue its advance that started in October 2024, spending the last circa. 50 days consolidating at the 2022 highs. 

A seasonal downtrend developing at this time would further blow positive tailwinds for global economy expansion and crypto performing higher.  

Related:Bitwise Reports: Institutional Confidence in Crypto Peaks as Retail Sentiment Plummets

Bitcoin – BTC

The yearly volume-weighted average price (or VWAP), indicates to us that we are currently accepting prices just 1 standard deviation below the yearly average of $99k US. Investor tensions are understandably higher, as Q1 in a post-halving year has historically marked the best returns – and the clock is ticking. 

Steady | No market structure shift to suggest the market is chasing Bitcoin, but there has been interest at these relative lows. 

Room for lower | Should we see some volatility, there are levels below price that may attract buyers, at the 2nd and 3rd deviation bands. 

Related:Engineer Eyes Landfill Purchase in Quest to Recover $1.2 Billion Bitcoin Treas

Dogecoin – DOGE

With Elon’s US Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) making almost a daily appearance in headlines around the world, the collective mindshare has never been more aware of the DOGE brand. Will it result in people buying the memecoin? Maybe, no one knows — but it’s been getting a lot of free advertising. 

More to be desired | Looking at the structure of the chart technically, there has been no higher high on the daily time frame. 

Positive early sign | We do appear to be reclaiming the bottom of the recent horizontal range. 

Hyperliquid – HYPE

This has been on my watch list, it’s consistently appeared as a market top performer in the last two weeks while the market has been in a holding pattern. That relative strength is something I like to note. 

Sign of Strength | During the start of February, we can see a bullish market structure break with a new range high forming. 

Waiting for a second | Another break higher here would put HYPE in a solid position to begin an uptrend in my analysis. 

Keep up to date.

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Cheers!