- Bitcoin has dropped nearly 10% in the past week, losing its support level at US $100k, while other major altcoins like Solana have also been significantly affected.
- Analyst Michael Pizzino warns that the next 12 months could see a bearish turn for the crypto market, despite strong macro trends.
- Pizzino identifies the potential for a major market correction, especially if Bitcoin falls below its support level at US $74k and experiences a “complacency bounce”.
- Despite this, he advises investors to remain adaptable and consider broader macroeconomic trends, rather than relying solely on short-term analysis.
Let’s be honest – there’s a lot of FUD in the market at the moment.
Bitcoin has fallen nearly 10% in the past week, losing its grip on a US $100k (AU $160k) support level.
And several major altcoins have been hit even harder (I’m looking at you, Solana).
But if we take a step back, we can see that the crypto market has come a long way in 2024, and corrections like we’re experiencing are very normal.
However, according to prominent Aussie analyst Michael Pizzino, things could take an even darker turn over the next 12 months.
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Pizzino Analyses Bearish Signals in Ethereum and Solana
Michael Pizzino’s latest video focuses on the technical analysis of three major cryptocurrencies: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana.
The analyst notes that both Ethereum and Solana have experienced three consecutive down days, which can signal a macro double top. Essentially, this is a bearish trend that could lead to a longer down period than many anticipated moving into 2025.
Although Bitcoin hasn’t quite yet triggered the same signal, it’s on the path toward it.
We now have the potential for a macro double top which is a very bearish signal. Now, it’s early days…[but] we shouldn’t ignore the same signal popped up in Bitcoin away from that March top and it did lead to a very lengthy and severe draw down in the market.
Michael Pizzino, Trader and Analyst at TIA cryptoPizzino does point out that broader macroeconomic trends for Bitcoin are still positive, with bullish trend lines remaining intact.
He also highlights the dangers of over-relying on short-term analysis versus long-term, as trends over a larger timeframe are typically more reliable. Therefore, it remains important for investors to stay adaptable, rather than stubbornly sticking to a single short-term approach.
Pizzino Warns of “Complacency Bounce”, Triggering Liquidation Amid Seemingly Bullish Trends
Despite the longer-term trends appearing bullish, Pizzino believes a certain event could trigger his liquidation from the crypto scene entirely (for a while, anyway).
Analysing bull market cycles, Pizzino suggests the possibility of a major market correction before investors enter the final stage of the uptrend.
He identifies Bitcoin’s support level at US $74k (AU $118k) as being a major signal.
If the market falls below this level as part of the correction, it might be viewed as a bottom by traders and see a quick and sharp price bounce.
However, if this bounce occurs with less market activity (volume and independent traders), he would view it as a “complacency bounce” which can indicate a market top – leading to a bear market like we experienced in 2022.
Even if we do get a bounce [from US $74k] I’d be very much looking out for a macro lower high and just a bigger picture complacency bounce for me…is one of the big signals I’m tracking to actually liquidate everything…there’d be a higher chance the market has topped…and we’re going to be put into a rather savage and long-lasting bear market.
Michael Pizzino, Trader and Analyst at TIA cryptoThat said, Pizzino emphasises that investors need to “listen to what the market is saying” and is looking for reasons that his analysis could be wrong.
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