- Bitcoin breaks to fresh all-time highs this week, as Trump claims victory.
- The US interest rate decision will land early tomorrow morning. More cuts are forecast and I break down what is forecast for rates in the near future.
- Altcoin analysis: DOGE and SUI
We made it! New all-time highs for Bitcoin! 🥳
While the jury is out on whether a Trump victory is that impactful in sending Bitcoin soaring, I’m of the opinion that lifting the fog of uncertainty may have been enough to give the market a kick. That being said, it’s not hard to anticipate some kind of dopamine hit from the market, given that crypto has been a theme in his campaign. Either way, the market did not disappoint.
Fear and greed currently reads 50 – neutral.
But Wait, There’s More
Attention should now shift to the upcoming U.S. interest rate decision, which will be announced tomorrow at 5 AM AEST.
The forecast is for another drop, which aligns with the Federal Open Markets Committee’s (FOMC) outlook for 2024.
Dot plots are our go-to visualisation for interpreting Federal Reserve meeting outcomes—they reveal where members anticipate the target interest rate by year’s end.
With just two meetings remaining this year—one on November 8th and the final on December 14th—the countdown is on.
Without any unexpected events, median projections for 2024 suggest rates might drop to the 4.25% to 4.50% range across these two meetings by the end of next year.
Simply put, more cuts are coming for the rest of 2024, and again into 2025.
My Take
The rate drop tomorrow could be another timely catalyst that could propel Bitcoin back to fresh all-time highs again.
Related: Bitcoin Hits New All-Time Highs as Donald Trump Returns to White House
Bitcoin – BTC
As we start to see some volatility, finding levels where prices could move back can get very tricky. Especially with significant key levels like previous all-time highs just below current price. These are levels I am personally watching.
Bullish Scenario
If prices go back to their previous all-time high, I could see a scenario where the bulls would have a reason to step in and push prices higher.
Secondly, if we were to see a more measured pullback, I would expect accumulation around the ‘Golden-Fib’ level between $70,488 and $71,617.
Bearish Scenario
A deeper move could follow below $67,000 if we don’t see support levels like these seek interest from the bulls.
Related: ‘Golden Age of Crypto’: Analysts Say Trump Win to Usher in New Era for US Crypto Policy
Dogecoin – DOGE
Following up from last week, we’ve seen DOGE show strength as Bitcoin moved. Below are my thoughts on what could come next, when mapping out price using Fibonacci analysis.
Bullish Scenario
While we could see the market consolidate now we are at the 0.786 Fibonacci level, I would be watching dips get bought, and DOGE push towards the $0.22 previous high.
Bearish Scenario
Failure for the market to show any interest on the buy side could see a deeper pullback.
Sui – SUI
Another top performer these last few months has been SUI. It’s also nearing an opportunity for new highs again.
I believe we are heavily dependent on market sentiment from here, which could mean prices have shallow pullbacks. I’ve provided a few takes on what I expect to happen next.
Bullish Scenario
Similar to Bitcoin, there is a scenario in which the market is happy to start buying at the previous all-time high and push higher.
Secondly, we could see a deeper pullback to the key support outlined in the green box before a move higher.
Bearish Scenario
However, should these fail, we could have a bearish scenario to move lower brewing.
My take
From here, alts are very sensitive to what Bitcoin does next. Higher prices will bode well for trending altcoins, but don’t be surprised to see most of the altcoins back lag behind for a few weeks as Bitcoin leads the way.
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