- The US presidential race is close between Harris and Trump, with the election less than two weeks away.
- Crypto markets lean towards Trump due to his recent pro-crypto stance and promise to replace SEC head Gensler.
- Polymarket shows strong betting favour for Trump, influenced by a significant wager from a French trader.
- Ripple CEO Garlinghouse predicts a significant crypto policy reset regardless of whether Trump or Harris wins.
In less than a fortnight, the US will finally vote to decide on who’ll be the next president of the United States. While Donald Trump had the lead when sitting president Joe Biden was still in the running, the race is now much closer with Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee.
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But Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse believes, no matter who moves into the White House, crypto wins.
French Connection Behind Huge Bet: Polymarket
Overall, the crypto industry is favouring a Trump win, as he is perceived to be the more crypto friendly candidate, following his recent support of the industry including a promise to oust much disliked US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) chief Gary Gensler.
And although traditional polls are much closer in their predictions about the next president, crypto-based prediction market Polymarket is in favour of Trump – by a lot.
The large discrepancy between Polymarket and traditional polling – with Harris leading Trump by 1.8% in a recent FiveThirtyEight poll – caused some observers to cry foul.
According to a report in the New York Times, citing Polymarket as a source, a French trader with an “extensive trading experience and a financial services background”, is behind one of the largest bets on Trump. The French national has put US$45 million (AU$67.8 million) on a Trump win.
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Polymarket said the trader did not attempt to manipulate the market and acted based on personal views.
Further, our investigation to date has not identified any information to suggest that this user manipulated, or attempted to manipulate, the market. This user has agreed not to open further accounts without notice.
PolymarketSome have praised Polymarket as being more accurate than traditional polls, yet prediction markets operate differently, resembling bookmakers analysing probabilities rather than just gauging public opinion. Unlike elections where each vote counts equally, in markets like Polymarket, a person’s influence is proportional to the amount they wager.
Ripple CEO: “No Matter What Happens, We’re Going to See a Reset”
Meanwhile, Garlinghouse told CNBC during an interview at the DC Fintech Week in Washington, D.C. on Wednesday afternoon that he believes the US is approaching a crypto reset.
Garlinghouse said whether Trump or Harris wins the election, either of them will be a departure from the current “failed approach from the Biden administration”.
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He added that although Trump is clearly the more pro-crypto candidate, Harris has been “more nuanced”, with Team Harris recently making more constructive comments on the topic.
He also pointed to her background and that Harris is far from anti-tech:
Kamala Harris is from Silicon Valley; she has generally been pro technology over the years. She has been relatively quiet on the topic, but I think no matter what happens, we’re going to see a reset.
Brad Garlinghous, Ripple CEOGarlinghouse said he believes the SEC and other hostile agencies will “leave behind a failed approach from the Biden administration”.
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