- Ethereum remains the second-largest crypto but has lagged with only a 44% increase compared to Bitcoin’s 123% and Solana’s 496% over the past year.
- Despite trading at prices similar to 2022, Ethereum has not reached a new all-time high this cycle, peaking at US$4,066 in March 2024.
- Analyst Benjamin Cowen predicts Ethereum could see a further 30% drop, potentially totalling a 70% decrease from its recent peak.
- Cowen maintains Ethereum will remain a top crypto but highlights its increased correlation with Bitcoin, suggesting both may face corrections.
Despite being the second largest crypto by market cap, and the single largest DeFi (decentralised finance) platform out there, Ethereum has been struggling. It hasn’t made the same gains as Bitcoin so far and has seen increasing competition from other layer-1s such as Solana, Aptos and Sei, to name just a few.
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While BTC gained 123% over the past year and SOL rallied an impressive 496% in that time, ETH managed to gain just 44%. ETH is currently trading for US$2,370 (AU$3,462), which is similar to mid-2022. And it hasn’t even made a new all-time high (ATH) this cycle, topping out at US$4,066 (AU$5,938) in March 2024.
Ben Cowen Thinks ETH Could Drop Further 30%
Popular YouTuber, chart and macro analyst with a PhD in Engineering, Benjamin Cowen, believes things could get more troubling for ETH, at least in the short term.
While ETH is already down 40% from its local high, he says a further 30% drop is possible based on his analysis.
Cowen says that the last two times Ethereum’s value against Bitcoin dropped below key support levels, the price of Ethereum in US dollars fell by about 70%, reaching its lower growth trend line.
These big drops happened in the last quarters of 2016 and 2019; Cowen said “and perhaps this cycle it occurs in Q4 2024”.
Ethereum Still to Stay Number Two for a While, Says Cowen
Cowen, who likes to call his chart analysis session “dubious speculation”, is not a nay-sayer, but he likes to give people a perspective that often opposes the hype you see on social media.
“I know all the gurus all calling for “Uptober,” but as I said in May, considering the downside risk is always worthwhile. By the time these trends finally become obvious to the people who initially do not believe them, the trend will probably change.”
Ben CowenAll that said, Cowen doesn’t believe that there’s much wrong fundamentally with Ethereum. In his latest video session, he emphasised that he doesn’t believe that Ethereum’s time as second largest crypto by market cap is over.
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He added that he believes Ethereum is “sniffing out some weakness in the market that other coins have not yet figured out”.
Cowen also believes that ETH and BTC are increasingly correlated and therefore Bitcoin would also see a correction, similar, albeit not as strong as ETH’s correction.
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