On the Radar – Coins to Watch 01/08

The last seven days have been quite eventful for the digital assets space, from US presidential nominees promising to build strategic Bitcoin holdings to seeing prices break briefly above $70,000.

ETF Flows

Activity from the institutional Bitcoin funds has slowed, with two of the last six readings showing net selling. Ethereum ETF continues to see net buying activity across all products except the Grayscale ETHE product which continues to see an average of $282 million USD in outflows each trading day.

US Interest Rates Hold Overnight

Overnight, the US held interest rates steady at 5.50% for a ninth consecutive time. However, earlier in the week, US jobs data landed worse than expected. Specifically, non-farm employment numbers indicated the number of employed people is growing slower than expectations.

We will see the latest update to the US unemployment rate on Friday at 10:30 pm AEST. Currently, 4.1% is expected.

Related: Analyst Says Whales Are Preparing for Altcoin Rally: Here’s the Scoop

Bitcoin – BTC

Bitcoin, in the last few days of trading, has retraced after briefly touching $70,000 USD, now trading close to the middle of the multi-month range using the March high and May low. Below are two possible scenarios looking at current market structure. 

Bullish Scenario

Bulls defend the previous lows from the middle of July (grey box), which could be where the price continues to push higher. 

Bearish Scenario

Failure to hold these previous lows could push prices back to the July monthly open and potentially lower. 

My Thoughts 

Having put in the monthly close, we often expect to see volatility over the next few days. 

Related: Tether Reports Record US$5.2 Billion Net Profit for First Half of 2024, USDT Market Cap Nears US$115 Billion

Ethereum – ETH

This week, we will look at some majors, starting with Ethereum. Using a Fibonacci extension tool from the most recent high to low we can map out some areas of interest. Notably, the market has failed to rally above the 0.618 ‘golden fib’ of $3,536 USD. 

Bullish Scenario 

Bulls begin showing some strength at these prior lows (grey box). The market could then consolidate and push higher. In this next push, I would want to see Ethereum’s price get above the 0.618 level to speculate then a trend resuming higher. 

Bearish Scenario

If interest is not found at these levels, the market could make new local lows under $2,822 USD. 

Solana – SOL

Next up is Solana, which continues to show strength in the market, nearing $200 USD in this most recent rally. In comparison to Ethereum, we have seen Solana trade above the 0.618 ‘Golden fib’ level in recent times, and we are currently testing these levels again. 

Bullish Scenario 

Market participants resume buying as they have in the recent past at these levels and continue to hold the trend to push higher toward the previous highs of $210.18 USD. 

Bearish Scenario

If the 0.618 and 0.5 levels are both lost, this could be seen as a win for the bears where we could see the price then track lower towards $152.00 USD and potentially lower. 

My Thoughts 

Watching how Bitcoin and these majors perform in the coming 1-2 weeks will be very telling for how the rest of the market performs. Should we continue to see consolidation or trends continue to go higher, we could expect the altcoin market to continue to trend higher. 

Conversely, if we do see a cooling off across these three majors, I expect many altcoins to undo recent price gains. 

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