On the Radar – Coins to Watch 20/06

Bitcoin is moving… off exchanges

Historically speaking, looking at previous market cycles and the behaviour of users depositing and withdrawing coins off exchanges can provide another helpful data point around human behaviour and what might be happening right now. 

While we don’t know for sure, Bitcoin moving off exchanges (red) could represent users and entities taking self-custody of assets. 

While Bitcoin is moving back to exchanges (green), we could expect as an observable behaviour when users are selling Bitcoin & taking profits. 

The graphic above shows that the most recent trend is that Bitcoin is being removed from exchanges in a far more aggressive manner than what we saw from June to October 2023. 

We can also see in the past that we had similar movements in late 2020 before Bitcoin hit new all-time highs that year and began its move into price discovery. 

Hot take

I personally am of the belief that we are witnessing a buying of the dip moment on Bitcoin. 

Related: Market Shake-Up! Crypto’s TOTAL Market Cap Drops 8% While Bitcoin Eyes $60,000

Bitcoin – BTC

Bitcoin has hit a pocket of liquidity in the last few days, driving into the gap left since the breakout in the middle of May. These areas, often labelled as Fair Value Gaps (FVGs), can be key zones of interest where we can observe for a reaction.

Source: TradingView

Bullish Scenario

Seeing buyers take action in this zone would be a bullish sign, and could be how the next uptrend begins to form. 

Bearish Scenario

Failure to garner any attention from buyers could spell trouble. I would also be paying attention to ETF flows, which have been net sellers for the last four sessions. 

My Thoughts 

The next few days are critical, getting above the most recent highs of $67,350 will be what I’m looking for – as this would mean a new local higher high. I would then look for a Higher low to form above $64,100 to potentially form an uptrend. 

Related: Breaking: US SEC Ends Investigation into Ethereum 2.0, Says No Further Legal Action Will Be Taken

Ethereum – ETH

With the pending go-live date of the Ethereum ETFs, and the official suspension of investigations by the US Securities and Exchanges Commission (SEC)- the stage is set fundamentally for Ethereum. Below is my take on the current technicals, using Fibonacci Extensions from the current range high and low. 

Bullish scenario 

Price continues to push back above the ‘Golden Fib’ ratio of 0.618 ($3,605), where we could see an uptrend towards the previous high at $4,090 and then attempt running to $4,445 and $4,874 as the next key Fibonacci measured extensions. 

Bearish scenario

Failure for the bulls to step in and take prices above 0.618 ($3,605) could result in new lows under $2,820. 

My thoughts

If the general sentiment around crypto markets improves, and Bitcoin continues to hold and drift higher, I would expect a retest of the previous highs $4,090 as the next move. 

Lido DAO – LDO

With the recent lifting of regulatory headwinds from Ethereum, I am looking at projects that now have less of a cloud of doubt over their future fundamentals, like Lido Dao – a liquid staking platform on the Ethereum ecosystem. 

Bullish scenario 

There is still more work to be done, but a move above the golden fib ($3.068) on the current range high and low would be a bullish sign. Potential targets are previous highs ($4.034) and Fibonacci extensions thereafter. 

Bearish scenario

Failure to get any sustained traction from buyers could result in new lows under $1.504. 

My thoughts

If Ethereum were to move with strength in the coming weeks and days, I would expect LDO to follow suit. Being a lower market cap than ETH also means more risk but also a higher potential return. 

See you all again next week.

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