Analysts Predict Potential Sell-Off Under These Conditions

Bitcoin has been trading in a range between US$66.8K (AU$100K) and US$71.4K (AU$107K) for more than a week, while institutions continue to accumulate Spot ETFs.

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Analysts at Swissblock expect BTC to continue trading sideways “for a while giving altcoins a time to shine”.

They said BTC has tested the major resistance at US$72K (AU$108K) unsuccessfully several times, but a breach could see it reach new all-time highs (ATH).

They added that the US$72K-$74K (AU$108K-$110K) price range presents a significant obstacle for Bitcoin buyers due to high supply and selling pressure. A break above this could lead to a sharp rise, possibly setting a new all-time high, as it triggers a short-squeeze.

According to Swissblock, lower-than-expected US inflation prospects in May spurred buying in BTC and other markets, pushing BTC up from below US$67K (AU$100K).

Uncertainty about a September Fed rate cut and the upcoming US income and spending report could sway BTC prices, they said in a note.

If personal income and spending exceed forecasts, or inflation is higher than expected, fears of a Fed rate hike might cause a crypto sell-off. They added that the initiation of trading for the Spot ETH ETF could dampen the effects of a hawkish Fed:  

However, positive news related to the ETH spot ETF market could mitigate the effects of a more hawkish Fed rate path, providing support to the market.

Swissblock

Bitcoin Whales Activity Declining

Meanwhile, data from Santiment shows that whales have slowed down accumulation over the past few months:

Looking at the amount of $100K+ BTC daily transfers, it’s clear that whale activity has been on the decline for about three months now, dating back to a couple weeks before Bitcoin’s March 14th all-time high.

Santiment

They added that this doesn’t spell doom, it just means larger holders are “not finding any significant opportunities to profit take or accumulate right now”.

Typically, whale transactions become most prominent during periods of peak volatility or significant market shifts. Santiment compares these to the market downturns witnessed during the FTX collapse in November 2022, or the surges leading up to Bitcoin’s all-time high in March 2024.

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