- Expectations rapidly shifted from no Ethereum ETF in 2024 to potential approval by this Thursday, fuelled by insider tips.
- Bloomberg analysts raised approval odds from 25% to 75%, while ETH prices surged 30% in response.
- Standard Chartered anticipates SEC approval this week, with significant ETH inflows and price increases expected post-approval.
In just a couple of days we went from everyone expecting a Spot Ethereum ETF will not be happening anytime soon – some even saying not in 2024 at all – to everyone expecting the approval by no later than Thursday this week.
Related: ETH Prices Rally as ETF Rumours Swirl; Analysts Boost Approval Odds from 25% to 75%
Bloomberg ETF analysts James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas as well as Fox Business’ Eleanor Terrett were among the first to break the news that the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) may have changed its stance on the applications.
The Bloomberg analysts adjusted their odds of approval from 25% to 75% saying they’re “hearing chatter […] that SEC could be doing a 180 on this (increasingly political issue)”.
The market has certainly reacted positively to the news and ETH rallied as much as 30%, in a real crypto-like moonshot.
Standard Chartered: 90% Sure of Approval
While a number of analysts have since voiced their belief that the SEC has indeed changed its mind on the ETFs – or perhaps never was against an approval after all, since we are still waiting to hear from them – one financial heavy-weight has now opined on the matter.
British multinational bank Standard Chartered, with US$800 billion (AU$1,200 billion) in assets under management (AUM) has just come out and said it expects an approval by the end of this week.
The bank’s head of FX research and digital assets research, Geoff Kendrick, told The Block that he is “80% to 90% sure” about an approval happening this week.
Kendrick expects up to 10 million in ETH could be flowing in these ETFs:
After approval, we estimate that spot ETFs will drive inflows of 2.39-9.15 million ether in the first 12 months after approval. In U.S. dollar terms, that equates to roughly $15 billion to $45 billion.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard CharteredETH to Keep Pace with BTC, Says Kendrick
If approved, the analyst expects that Ether will keep pace with Bitcoin’s price increase – with the number one crypto expected to reach US$150K (AU$225K) by the end of 2024, Kendrick anticipates ETH will be valued at US$8K (AU$12K).
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Given that we now see bitcoin reaching the $150,000 level by end-2024, this would imply a level of $8,000 for ether.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard CharteredExciting price predictions but it gets better – Kendrick said he believes by the end of 2025 Bitcoin will be priced at US$200K (AU$300K) and ETH at US$14K (AU$21K).
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