- US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) provide the latest update on economic health and direction.
- Bitcoin takes out March lows, what I want to see play out in the coming days.
- Altcoin analysis: SOL, NEAR
It’s another month, and there’s plenty to talk about from day one.
Today we kicked off with significant news from the US Federal Reserve, a key update amid widespread concerns about unchecked inflation and the potential fears of another interest rate hike in 2024.
Key takeaways from the Fed’s announcement include:
- An ‘unlikely’ comment towards the possibility of a rate hike.
- Rate cuts if the labour market weakens.
For the markets, so far, it seems this signals a more favourable outcome than previously feared, with some altcoins boasting double-digit gains this morning.
In addition, economic data on US Job Openings (JOLTS) came in 2.2% lower than expected. Could this be a hairline crack in the jobs market that brings these rate cuts forward?
US Unemployment Rate will be released at 10:30 pm AEST this Friday. I expect this to have a very significant impact on what happens next. Any weakness here could result in the Fed taking action, conversely an as-expected result will likely be priced into the market.
Related: Litecoin Founder Charlie Lee Expects ETF Approval, Doubts Ethereum’s Chances
Bitcoin – BTC
Looking at some very simple range analysis using the current swing highs and swing low in between, below are my thoughts heading into the end of the week. We also took out the March monthly lows convincingly with this move.
Bullish scenario
A reclaim of this lower range level could be a sign of strength from the bulls. This would suggest that we could expect a move towards $62,000.
Bearish scenario
Inability to rally back into this channel, we could see fresh lows again where bulls and bears will need to battle it out again similar to today.
Solana – SOL
Using a Fibonacci retracement measurement on SOL, I see two potential scenarios. A lot of this will also depend on how Bitcoin reacts.
Bullish scenario
Continuing to see prices held at or above the ‘golden fib’ ratio of 0.618 should see prices move back above $160.
Bearish scenario
Failure to find support here, I anticipate that price moving towards the next key fib level around $107.
Related: BlackRock Invests $47 Million in Securitize to Advance Blockchain in Capital Markets
Near Protocol – NEAR
A standout performer in recent times, NEAR is at a key point using some range analysis of prior highs and lows. Relative to the dip during the 12/04-20/04, we would now want to see interest from the bulls where the price is currently.
Bullish scenario
Prices holding here and starting to push toward prior highs above $7.50.
Bearish scenario
Failure to hold, resulting in a move below $5.00.
See you all again next week.
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