- PlanB’s April Bitcoin analysis has revealed exciting times may be ahead for the coin as it moves toward the 2024 halving.
- Supply shock may set in sooner than expected thanks to the introduction of spot ETFs and the block reward falling to all-time lows.
- In the video, PlanB looks at moving averages and the relative strength index to determine the strength of Bitcoin’s current uptrend.
- A stock-to-flow model analysis demonstrated a potential target price of USD $500K by 2025.
A lot of uncertainty and speculation is surrounding Bitcoin’s price at the moment. With the block halving imminent, analysts are all over the place in their predictions. Some believe the halving will have minimal impact on BTC’s price action, whereas others are suggesting it will be the catalyst that sets off a bull run like no other. PlanB, a prominent YouTube analyst, sits firmly in the latter grouping – but not even the most optimistic BTC bulls were prepared for what his analysis unveiled.
Related: Bitcoin Halving to Boost BTC Price? History May Not Repeat, Says Coinbase Exec
Moving Average, RSI and Stock-to-Flow Indicators All Point Towards Uptrend
PlanB touches upon several pieces of technical and fundamental analysis in their latest video to determine Bitcoin’s current position. The first point made in the analysis is an interesting one. Historically, Bitcoin has hit new all-time highs in each post-halving cycle, often 12-18 months post-event. This time around though, BTC breached the USD $72K (AUD $110K) barrier over a month before the halving, setting the market up to reach even greater heights going forward.
PlanB also looked at the Relative Strength Index (RSI) for some insight into market trends pre-halving. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s RSI levels (77) are the highest they’ve ever been before a halving. Because of weaker RSI levels, previous bull runs were supposedly restricted by diminishing returns, but PlanB believes today’s high RSI indicates exponential returns as we move into a low-supply era.
Furthermore, a look at Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average (MA) shows the coin sitting at about USD $33K (AUD $50K), which represents the floor in a bear market – much higher than Bitcoin’s lowest prices in 2022-23. Even more impressively, Bitcoin’s five-month realised price is currently USD $60K (AUD $91K), a much more “aggressive” floor price if the market goes awry post-halving.
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But perhaps the most illuminating data discussed by PlanB is Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model. This form of analysis sounds a little complex, but its fundamentals are quite simple. It essentially looks at supply, specifically, existing supply (stock) versus new supply (flow). Given the introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs and the halving event less than a week away, it’s no surprise that a supply squeeze is coming to BTC. And according to PlanB’s stock-to-flow analysis, this could result in Bitcoin rocketing as high as USD $500K (AUD $750K) within 12-18 months.
10x returns in less than a year? Where do I sign up?!
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