- Aussie analyst, Ted Talks Macro, has said strong US jobs data is likely to delay interest rate cuts, prolonging the crypto correction and creating an opportunity to accumulate.
- Ted also suggested the factors that have driven gold’s price higher recently, like US dollar debasement and higher inflation, will also see Bitcoin surge later this year.
Popular Australian investment analyst, Ted Talks Macro, has said the current pullback in crypto markets represents a golden opportunity to accumulate before we see a return to more bullish conditions later this year.
Ted pointed to the strong jobs data out of the US last week as likely delaying much-anticipated rate cuts. He thinks this will see the correction in crypto markets continue in the short term—while adding that strong economic indicators are favourable for high risk assets, like crypto, in the longer term.
Related: Aussie Analyst Warns Market Correction Could Worsen Under This Condition
Jobs Data May Delay US Rate Cuts, Says Analyst
According to Ted Talks Macro, the better-than-expected jobs data out of the US lowers the chances of an interest rate cut in the short-term. The jobs data, which was released last Friday US time, showed that unemployment had dropped from 3.9% to 3.8%, with over 300,000 new jobs being created, far more than the expected 200,000.
Generally when unemployment is low the Fed is less likely to reduce interest rates as more jobs means more money flowing into the economy and a rate cut could risk overheating things.
A JPMorgan economist told Reuters that the urgency for the Fed to ease monetary policy had lessened, which saw the investment bank push back its call for the first rate cut from June to July. Some analysts have suggested rate cuts won’t happen until 2025.
Ted said the probable delay created good conditions for smart money to accumulate while sentiment is temporarily low. In the longer term, he thinks the strong economy, along with other factors such as the Bitcoin halving and continued interest in the Bitcoin spot ETFs, will see a return to a bullish crypto market later this year.
Not everyone agrees. An X user known as RedRocks Capital responded to Ted’s post saying that the market has still priced in three rate cuts this year and the predicted likelihood of a rate cut in June is still virtually the same as what it was before the jobs data was released:
Gold Price Performance Suggests Bitcoin Will Surge
Ted Talks Macro also suggests that gold’s recent price growth may indicate that Bitcoin will perform similarly later this year. According to Ted, Bitcoin and gold are generally highly correlated assets, but recently they’ve diverged as gold has surged higher while Bitcoin has pulled back.
Related: ‘Rich Dad, Poor Dad’ Author: Don’t Wait to Invest in Bitcoin
He said the factors driving gold’s recent increase — debasement of the US dollar, higher inflation and a reduction in yields — will likely also eventually contribute to growth in Bitcoin’s price. The analyst also said the upcoming halving and the new ETFs will be important drivers of Bitcoin’s price appreciation:
Often times you’ll see these divergences between highly correlated assets for various reasons, it could be trader positioning (which I think is the case here for BTC) but the underlying notion is that both have all reasons to move higher this year. Lower yields, higher inflation… and BTC has the halving + the ETF. I don’t think you should be bearish up here.
Ted Talks Macro
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