- Bitcoin shows hot and cold signals. What comes next, higher or lower?
- Many long positions were liquidated, as traders may have been overexposed leading into the Bitcoin halving.
- Altcoin analysis for Layer 1’s – SOL and AVAX
As Bitcoin puts to bed another month and quarter of trading, we again continue to see it crush milestone after milestone. Here are a few more we can tick off from the last month:
- New all-time high set in March
Highest ever monthly close- Highest ever quarterly close
So why are we selling off? Recently, we’ve weathered the move from $73k to $60k (~17% drop) and then again this week from $70k to $64k (~10% drop).
Bitcoin Halving
With the halving now less than 20 days away, it has been historically common to see some volatility leading into this major fundamental event. We also witnessed many overleveraged players washed out in these recent dips. It could be drawn that many speculators in the market were simply too exposed, thinking prices were set to go higher, as there is a significantly higher proportion of longs taken out as we can see from the graphic below.
Overall, the fundamental and underlying conditions for the crypto markets have not changed. So, it’s my opinion that what we see is a normal reset before the next move.
However, with that being said it’s yet to be seen if this is the end of the current downmove, or if we are yet to see under $60,000 USD one more time before we may resume higher.
I cover this all in detail in my latest video on my YouTube channel – Crypto with Pav. Check it out and as always share it with a friend if you found it helpful!
Related: Franklin Templeton Sees ‘Renaissance’ in Bitcoin Activity, Credits Ordinals for Innovation Surge
Bitcoin – BTC
Looking at some very simple range analysis below are my thoughts on the current market heading into the weekend.
Bitcoin is at a very interesting decision point, as the market trades just under the previous week’s low. From the perspective of market structure, below are two potential scenarios from here.
Bullish scenario
Last week’s low reclaims, and we start to see a push-back towards $69,000, the middle of this range. From there we could set up the next base to push higher.
Bearish scenario
Failure to get back above last week’s low, and we trade lower, under $60,000.
Solana – SOL
A well-known top performer by now, let’s take a look at how it’s shaping up.
Since last month, there has been a notable breakout even on Solana, but to this date, it has yet to drive higher. Below are two potential scenarios now that it finds prices back at this resistance trend line.
Bullish scenario
A successful touch and go higher for the bulls from here could then send prices above $200 USD.
Bearish scenario
Failure to find buyers would result in this trend line failing. This could then precipitate a downtrend and new lows towards $160 USD.
Related: Quant Traders Outperform ‘Buy and Hold’ Strategy in Bitcoin’s Roller-Coaster Market, Studies Show
Avalanche – AVAX
Similar to Solana, Avalanche has experienced significant movement, approaching a critical resistance level that could indicate where it is headed short-term.
Using range analysis, we can set some ‘if this, then that’ statements as bullish and bearish.
Bullish scenario
Being outside the range now, we would want to see bulls step in, and ideally push AVAX back into the purple range by claiming the previous low. This could then set up a move to the top of the range.
Bearish scenario
A sustained downtrend here could be seen if there is no significant interest from buyers.
See you all again next week.
Keep up to date.
Stay informed and connected! I’m excited to announce my new YouTube channel, Crypto with Pav, where I dive into the latest trends in cryptocurrency, offering insights on what’s coming next and highlighting news and technical structure I believe is crucial.
I’m also on X.
Cheers!
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