- Bitcoin experiences volatility with a 12% correction after reaching a new all-time high, amidst analyst warnings of potential short-term corrections.
- Standard Chartered revises its end-of-year 2024 Bitcoin forecast to USD $150k, drawing parallels between ETF impacts on Bitcoin and gold, and predicting a rapid market development.
- The bank anticipates a cycle high of USD $250k by 2025 for Bitcoin and suggests Spot Ethereum ETF approval could propel Ethereum to $8k in 2024 due to significant inflows.
The past week has been testing Bitcoin enthusiasts’ patience, going from a new all-time high to a 12% correction within days. But analysts have warned that more corrections are a possibility, at least in the short term. With the Bitcoin halving only 32 days away—according to CoinMarketCap—some analysts are adjusting their medium-term predictions.
Related: Bitcoin Begins Recovery, Analysts Weigh in on Future Path
According to a report by CNBC, Standard Chartered has just revised its end of year forecast for 2024 upwards from USD $100k (AUD $152k) to USD $150k (AUD $228k).
We raise our long-held price estimate to the USD 150,000 level from USD 100,000 given the more rapid pass-through from ETF inflows to the BTC price to date.
Geoff KendrickThe bank based this on a comparison of ETF (Exchange-Traded Funds) inflows into Spot Bitcoin ETFs against Gold ETFs, and noted in a separate report:
We think the gold analogy—in terms of both ETF impact and the optimal portfolio mix—remains a good starting point for estimating the ‘correct’ BTC price level medium-term.
Standard CharteredAnalysts at the bank believe that while gold appreciated in price by 4.3x in eight years following the ETP (exchanged traded products) introduction, the Spot Bitcoin ETFs will see a more rapid increase.
We expect Bitcoin to enjoy price gains of a similar magnitude as a result of US Spot ETF approval—but we see these gains materialising over a shorter (one- to two-year) period—given our view that the BTC ETF market will develop more quickly.
Standard CharteredStandard Chartered also has noted that they expect a cycle high of USD $250k (AUD $381k) by 2025—with Bitcoin ultimately settling at approx. USD $200k (AUD $305k).
USD 200,000 is the ‘correct’ end-2025 price level for BTC. It also suggests that an overshoot to USD 250,000 is likely at some point in 2025 if ETF inflows continue apace and/or reserve managers buy BTC.
Geoff KendrickThe analysts also believe in the approval of Spot Ethereum ETFs by 23 May, which could send ETH to USD $8k (AUD $12.2k) amid USD $45bn (AUD $68.7bn) in inflows.
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