- Bitcoin’s recent drop to its lowest 2024 level was accompanied by a less severe outflow from GBTC, suggesting a potential shift towards stability in investor sentiment following the Spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
- A Deutsche Bank survey reveals that a third of respondents across the US, UK, and Europe expect Bitcoin to fall below USD $20,000, indicating a bearish sentiment and anticipation of further price declines among retail investors.
- Historically Bitcoin’s price was significantly below its all-time highs before past halvings, with the halving being a key mechanism in Bitcoin’s design to control supply and influence miner incentives.
ETF Sell-Off May Have Turned a Corner
Bitcoin Dropped Below USD $39,000 (AUD $59,273) briefly in what marks the lowest in 2024 so far. BTC traded for USD $38,550 (AUD $58,590) in the early hours of Wednesday, before it reached USD $39,845 (AUD $60,558) at the time of writing.
However, a tweet from Bloomberg Senior ETF analyst Eric Balchunas suggests the outflow which the GBTC (Grayscale Bitcoin Trust) is experiencing as of recent was USD $515 million (AUD $782 million). This is less severe than previously stated and an improvement from the previous day, which could indicate that post Spot Bitcoin ETF approval outflows are slowing down.
This could indicate a potential shift in investor sentiment or market dynamics, where the rate of capital withdrawal from the trust is reducing, possibly signalling a more stable or positive outlook among investors following the Spot Bitcoin ETF approval.
Deutsche Bank Survey Says More to Come
According to a survey by Deutsche Bank, retail investors believe there will be more price pain, as Bloomberg reports. According to the publication the bank asked 2,000 people in the US, UK and Europe and one third of people who responded believe Bitcoin will drop below USD $20,000 (AUD $30,382).
This sentiment among a significant portion of the surveyed group reflects a bearish outlook and a cautious or pessimistic view of Bitcoin’s short-term price trajectory, indicating an expectation of further declines.
Bitcoin Halving Gives Indication
If history is any indication investors may have based these assumptions on the past halving cycles, as Mags, also known as thescalpingpro, points out. In 2016 Bitcoin was 63% below all-time highs (ATH) 8 days before the halving, in 2020 this number was 52% and at present stands at 42%.
The Bitcoin halving, occurring roughly every four years, halves miners’ rewards, slowing Bitcoin creation to control inflation and incentivize network security, unrelated to transaction validation.
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