Stoners worldwide received word Thursday of a shocking announcement that’s all but certain to elicit a cacophony of quietly mumbled expressions of shock: Snoop Dogg, patron saint of marijuana, said that he’s officially giving up weed.
The DeFi market isn’t sure, though, if Snoop—the rapper, actor, and noted crypto enthusiast—will stand by the public statement issued today, and truly, permanently, lay his rolling papers to rest. So, some degens are now betting cryptocurrency on which way the hazy smoke will blow.
A bet on crypto predictions market Polymarket, opened just minutes after Snoop’s declaration, is currently asking gamblers to wager on whether the entertainer will smoke again in 2023. At writing, the bet, which will stay active until midnight on New Year’s Eve, has yet to garner a lot of action—though the order book has a growing stack of limit orders lined up, suggesting some interest around the topic.
While odds on the bet currently sit at even money, at two points earlier today, betting activity shot the odds of “Yes” up to 73%—meaning that at those points, a bet that Snoop would actually keep his word—and punt the blunt—offered substantially greater returns than a wager that he’d break his vow.
But the matter isn’t quite so simple as whether Snoop will break his vow. Questions, both philosophical and technical, abound.
When the rapper proclaimed today that, “After much consideration and conversation with my family, I’ve decided to give up smoke,” what exactly did he mean by smoke?
Was he swearing off all weed products, or just those that involve inhaling fumes? Are edibles absolved? Tinctures? Hand creams? Where do vapes fall on the spectrum—must the fine line between combustion and vaporization be consulted here? Are aerosol chemists about to have their moment?
These questions don’t only apply to Snoop; they also apply to the overseers of the Polymarket bet. The wager only asks whether Snoop will “smoke” before New Year’s. If he takes a hit from a massive bong vape on the front lawn of the White House on Thanksgiving, will degens who wagered their hard-earned tokens on “Yes” be left out in the cold?
DeFi oracle network UMA is tasked with resolving the Snoopgate bet. The fine print of the wager is thus: “The resolution source for this market will be statements from Snoop Dogg and/or a consensus of credible reporting.”
But what if Snoop smokes in secret? What if he stops going outside? If a blunt is smoked in an LA mansion and no one is there to smell it, has the magic dragon truly been puffed? In a true and worthy test of oracle networks’ ability to bridge smart contracts to the real world, some gamblers are about to find out.
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