Peru declares Fujimori winner as Polymarket keeps Netanyahu at 39%

Peru Election Shock: Keiko Fujimori Declared President as Polymarket’s Israel PM Odds Hold Steady

Peru’s electoral court declared Keiko Fujimori the winner of a razor-thin presidential runoff, capping weeks of disputes over vote counting and procedure changes. On Polymarket, the Israel contract “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” was little changed, with Benjamin Netanyahu still narrowly leading at 39.0%.

Key Takeaways

• Benjamin Netanyahu leads the Polymarket market for Israel’s next prime minister at 39.0%, just ahead of Gadi Eizenkot at 38.35%.
• Traders are pricing a near coin-flip top two, with $25,455,403 in volume suggesting sustained, liquid two-way positioning rather than a runaway favorite.
• The market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31, with Netanyahu down 0.1 percentage point from 39.1% in the latest update.

Peru’s National Jury of Elections declared right-wing candidate Keiko Fujimori the winner of the country’s presidential race, weeks after the June 7 runoff against left-wing rival Roberto Sanchez. The official tally showed Fujimori winning 9,223,000 votes to Sanchez’s 9,173,000 after she held a slight lead when counting ended earlier in the week. Sanchez alleged irregularities and fraud tied to changes in election procedures, including a policy that loosened mandates around digitising overseas vote tallies, though election monitors said no proof of irregularities had emerged. Fujimori, who campaigned on cracking down on crime, said she would work to unite the country after years of political turmoil and economic stagnation. She is expected to take office in late July on Peru’s independence day, becoming the country’s ninth president in 10 years, while Sanchez has taken complaints to international bodies and signaled resistance efforts that could include an impeachment push after she is sworn in.

Israel “Next Prime Minister” Market: Netanyahu 39.0% vs Eizenkot 38.35% on $25,455,403 Volume

Polymarket pricing for “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” shows an exceptionally tight two-horse race, with Benjamin Netanyahu at 39.0% Yes (61.0% No) and Gadi Eizenkot at 38.35% Yes (61.65% No). The next tier drops sharply to Naftali Bennett at 13.5% Yes (86.5% No), while longer-shot outcomes such as Avigdor Lieberman at 3.5% Yes (96.5% No) and Itamar Ben Gvir at 1.2% Yes (98.8% No) remain heavily discounted. Total volume stood at $25,455,403, and the leader’s price ticked down slightly from 39.1% to 39.0%, indicating stable sentiment rather than a decisive shift toward a single frontrunner.

Watch for any sustained break between the top two contracts, especially whether Netanyahu can extend beyond the high-30s while Eizenkot slips, or whether liquidity continues to keep the race priced as a near even split into the 2026-12-31 resolution window.

Beyond Israel Politics: Other High-Impact Election Contracts Polymarket Traders Are Tracking Today

Beyond Israel’s leadership race, Polymarket traders are also taking cues from regional diplomacy and deadline-driven geopolitical bets. “99.8% No” leads in “Will Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?”, a contract that has drawn $2,149,164 in volume and moved 0.5 percentage point, underscoring how quickly sentiment can shift when markets hinge on near-term official signals.

Odds Trend

By the Numbers

• Platform: Polymarket
• Market: Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
• Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
• Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
• Status: Active (open for trading)
• Volume: ~$25,455,403

Top strike rungs

+14 more strikes not shown

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