- Cantor Fitzgerald analysts, led by Gareth Gacetta, said Bitcoin is “only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback” as the token trades near US$59,500
- Across the previous three cycles, Bitcoin bottomed an average of 384 days after peaking; as of June 10 it was 252 days past its 2025 high, pointing to a low around late October.
- The bank urged investors to favour networks with durable, cash-flow-backed value, while cautioning that its cycle model is not a precise timing tool.
Bitcoin is only a few months from bottoming out in its current downturn, according to Cantor Fitzgerald analysts who argue that historical cycle patterns point to a low around late October if the market behaves as it has before.
The call came from a team led by Gareth Gacetta, who framed the outlook around the rhythm of past Bitcoin cycles rather than any single catalyst. The token was trading near US$59,500 (AU$86,275) at the time of the note, down roughly 51% from its 2025 peak.
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“Ultimately, our belief is that we are only a few months away from the bottom of this pullback,” Gacetta’s team stated.
The analysts tied the drawdown to persistent exchange-traded fund outflows, elevated interest rates, and a broadly weaker appetite for risk assets. They cautioned that the model is not a precise timing tool, noting that macroeconomic, regulatory, and geopolitical shocks could pull the bottom forward or push it back.
Where Cantor Sees Value
Even with the cautious framing, the team argued that Bitcoin’s reflexive nature means historical cycles can become self-reinforcing, as falling prices eventually exhaust sellers and set the stage for recovery.
Cantor advised investors to shift focus toward networks demonstrating durable value accrual, whether through sustainable cash flow or lasting monetary demand, identifying Bitcoin as the benchmark monetary asset.
The bank also flagged digital asset treasury companies as an emerging theme worth watching, a nod to the growing cohort of listed firms holding crypto on their balance sheets.
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