Joerg Hiller
Jun 26, 2026 14:38
After the Fed held rates steady last week, some Trump advisers signaled more patience with Chair Kevin Warsh even as inflation hit 4.1% in May.
Fed Cuts 2026 Polymarket: Zero-Rate-Cut Odds Slip After 4.1% Inflation and Warsh Holds Rates Steady
After inflation rose 4.1% in May and President Donald Trump’s advisers signaled more patience with new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s decision to hold rates steady, Polymarket traders leaned further toward fewer Fed rate cuts in 2026. In Polymarket’s “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” ladder, the leading outcome remained zero cuts even as its odds dipped to 79.25%.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices a 79.25% chance of 0 Fed rate cuts in 2026 in the “How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?” market.
- Odds shifted lower after fresh inflation data and messaging that the White House is giving Chair Kevin Warsh political space to keep rates steady.
- The market resolves on 2026-12-31, with $39,079,314 matched so far.
Some economic advisers to President Donald Trump have signaled more patience for Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh after the Fed held interest rates steady last week, even as Trump has continued to call for rate cuts. A White House official said the administration is not reading the data differently, but that Warsh’s arrival has changed the political dynamic and given him a longer grace period than his predecessor. The shift comes after inflation rose 4.1% in the year ending in May, while the Fed’s preferred measure has a 2% target, and core inflation was 3.4%. The report said elevated energy prices linked to the war contributed to the higher reading. Warsh said the Fed was watching the data closely and the committee opted to keep rates steady while ending a long-standing plan that biased policy toward interest-rate cuts. Nearly half of Fed policymakers, according to projections released last week, expected interest rates to go up this year.
“How Many Fed Rate Cuts in 2026?” Ladder: $39.1M Matched as 0 Cuts Leads at 79.25% (1 Cut 12.50%, 2 Cuts 3.45%)
Polymarket’s ladder is dominated by the “0 (0 bps)” rung, with Yes at 79.25% versus No at 20.75%, implying traders still see no cuts as the base case despite a 2.85 percentage-point dip from 82.10%. Pricing falls off sharply beyond that: “1 (25 bps)” sits at 12.50% Yes / 87.50% No, while “2 (50 bps)” is 3.45% Yes / 96.55% No. Farther out, “3 (75 bps)” trades at 0.65% Yes / 99.35% No, underscoring how little probability the market assigns to multiple cuts. The contract has matched $39,079,314 in volume, indicating deep liquidity concentrated near the zero-cuts outcome.
Watch whether the “0 (0 bps)” rung holds near the high-70s and whether any sustained flow moves probability toward “1 (25 bps),” as the market approaches its 2026-12-31 resolution date.
Beyond Fed Bets: Other High-Volume Polymarket Macro & Geopolitical Contracts Traders Are Watching
Beyond longer-dated rate-cut ladders, activity is also clustering in nearer-term macro timing plays, with 81.5% on “No change” in “Fed Decision in July?” as the contract draws $21,111,083 in matched volume. Traders often use these front-end outcomes as a cross-check on broader risk positioning, while rotating into other high-velocity geopolitical and macro contracts when central-bank pricing stabilizes.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +2.2 |
| 7d | +2.2 |
By the Numbers
- Platform: Polymarket
- Market: How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- Contract type: Price strike ladder: each rung has separate Yes/No; Yes means the spot price is above that USD strike at settlement.
- Resolution window: Dec 31, 2026 (UTC)
- Status: Active (open for trading)
- Volume: ~$39,079,314
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| 0 (0 bps) | 79.2% | 20.8% |
| 1 (25 bps) | 12.5% | 87.5% |
| 2 (50 bps) | 3.5% | 96.5% |
| 3 (75 bps) | 0.7% | 99.3% |
+9 more strikes not shown
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