Joerg Hiller
Jun 20, 2026 16:03
A U.S. official said Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah agreed Friday to a Lebanon ceasefire starting at 4 p.m. GMT, though later reports cited a deadly drone strike.
Lebanon Ceasefire Sparks Pullback in Polymarket: Eizenkot’s Next Israel PM Odds Dip as Netanyahu Closes In
Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire in Lebanon that a U.S. official said would begin at 4 p.m. (1300 GMT) on Friday. On Polymarket, traders slightly trimmed the implied odds for Gadi Eizenkot to be the next prime minister of Israel, while keeping him narrowly ahead of Benjamin Netanyahu in the multi-candidate market.
Key Takeaways
- Polymarket prices Gadi Eizenkot as the leading pick at 37.35% to be Israel’s next prime minister after the next election.
- After ceasefire news in Lebanon, Eizenkot’s implied odds slipped to 37.35% from 39.1% as pricing tightened among top contenders.
- The contract is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31, and the market has traded about $18,963,023 in volume.
Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah agreed to a ceasefire on Friday, a U.S. official said, after an escalation in hostilities in Lebanon that tested a U.S.-Iran interim deal aimed at ending the wider Middle East conflict. A senior Israeli official and two Hezbollah sources also confirmed the ceasefire, which the U.S. official said was due to begin at 4 p.m. (1300 GMT). Two Lebanese security sources said Israel carried out about a dozen airstrikes in the first hour after the ceasefire took effect, though they said none were recorded after 5 p.m., while an Israeli military official confirmed no strikes since 5 p.m. and denied the claim about a dozen strikes after 4 p.m. Lebanon’s National News Agency reported that a drone strike later killed two people on a motorbike on a southern Lebanese highway, and the Israeli military did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Lebanon’s health ministry said Israeli airstrikes had killed at least 47 people since midnight, while Israel reported four of its soldiers killed in south Lebanon in one of the deadliest Hezbollah attacks of the war.
Polymarket Data: $18.96M Volume as Eizenkot Leads at 37.35% vs Netanyahu at 34.5% in Next Israel PM Market
Polymarket’s “Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?” market showed a close front-runner race with Gadi Eizenkot at 37.35% Yes (62.65% No) and Benjamin Netanyahu at 34.5% Yes (65.5% No). Naftali Bennett was a distant third at 16.5% Yes (83.5% No), with a steep drop-off after that, including Avigdor Lieberman at 3.85% Yes (96.15% No) and Itamar Ben Gvir at 1.25% Yes (98.75% No). Total volume stood at $18,963,023, indicating deep liquidity even as the top two outcomes remained tightly priced. Eizenkot’s contract probability was down from 39.1% previously, reflecting a modest pullback rather than a decisive shift away from the current leader.
Watch whether the top two probabilities continue to converge and whether volume expands around Eizenkot and Netanyahu as the market approaches its 2026-12-31 resolution date.
Beyond the Israel PM Bet: Other High-Volume Geopolitical and Macro Polymarket Contracts Traders Are Watching
Beyond the Israel premiership race, Polymarket activity has also clustered in other Middle East timelines, including the $4,399,137 “Israel withdraws from Lebanon by…?” contract, where “July 31” leads at 13.5% after a 1.0-point move. Traders have been using these date-driven markets to express broader geopolitical views alongside the headline political bets, with liquidity rotating quickly as new signals emerge.
Odds Trend
| Window | Change (pp) |
|---|---|
| 24h | +3.6 |
| 7d | +3.6 |
By the Numbers
Top strike rungs
| Strike | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Gadi Eizenkot | 37.4% | 62.6% |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 34.5% | 65.5% |
| Naftali Bennett | 16.5% | 83.5% |
| Avigdor Lieberman | 3.9% | 96.2% |
+14 more strikes not shown
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