- Glassnode said Bitcoin broke above the US$78,200 True Market Mean and US$79,100 short-term-holder cost basis.
- The analytics firm put the next major resistance near US$85,200 as ETF demand rebuilds and short positioning persists.
- Realized Loss remains elevated at US$479 million per day, leaving the recovery short of full confirmation.
Bitcoin has reclaimed two key on-chain levels tracked by Glassnode, pushing above US$78,200 (AU$108K) and US$79,100 (AU$109K).
According to Glassnode’s May 6 Week On-Chain report, Bitcoin broke above the True Market Mean at US$78,200 and the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis at US$79,100, so holding above those levels suggests the recent deep-value phase was short-lived rather than the start of a deeper structural breakdown.
The move follows weeks of pressure around the same zone. Glassnode’s prior Week 16 report said Bitcoin had reclaimed the US$78,100 (AU$107.9K) True Market Mean for the first time since mid-January, while its Week 11 report had flagged a thinly accumulated air gap between US$72,000 (AU$100K) and US$82,000 (AU$114K).
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The Next Resistance Zone
Glassnode now puts the next major resistance near US$85,200 (AU$118.4K), above the volatile US$82,000 (AU$114K) options gamma zone flagged in the brief.
The analytics firm said Bitcoin is showing early signs of structural recovery, but not a confirmed durable regime. ETF demand is building again, and derivatives positioning remains skewed toward shorts, creating conditions where further upside could be amplified by short pressure.
Likewise, Glassnode said the 30-day SMA of Net Realized Profit/Loss turned positive at 0.003% of market capitalisation, a sign that realised gains are starting to outweigh realised losses across the network.
Long-term holder realised profit rose to roughly US$180 million (AU$250.2 million) per day, comparable with September 2024 and December 2022. Glassnode said that remains far below cycle peak levels above US$1 billion (AU$1.39 billion) per day, meaning the current move has not yet reached euphoric distribution conditions.
Generally speaking, a controlled profit-taking is healthier than a sudden flood of supply, so if Bitcoin can absorb all the long-term holder selling while holding reclaimed cost-basis levels, the rally has a stronger case for continuation.
However, losses remain elevated at US$479 million (AU$665.8 million) per day, about 140% above the cycle baseline.
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